For entertainment purposes only. And if I'm wrong, I'm guessing you'll be entertained.

Oregon State 24, Stanford 20: This smelled like a potential Stanford upset, but then the Cardinal got hit with a couple of injuries on the OL and at WR, so the Beavers get the nod in a game that figures to be low scoring. Oregon State's biggest edge is at the skill positions, and here's a guess that QB Lyle Moevao will be much smoother this season distributing the ball.

Oklahoma State 38, Washington State 24: The Cougars were hit hard by bad news this week with DT Andy Roof being kicked out of school and OT Dan Rowlands retiring due to recurring shoulder problems. The Cougars are thin on both lines. Meanwhile, the Cowboys' offensive line boasts 89 career starts, which makes this a mismatch up front.

USC 42, Virginia 10: The biggest point of interest here is how well USC QB Mark Sanchez plays after his rapid recovery from a dislocated knee. It's also worth watching to see how Pete Carroll distributes the ball among his six tailbacks. And you might want to catch the nation's best defense. Virginia is rebuilding, with just 11 starters back, and the Trojans don't do that. 

California 28, Michigan State 24: This might be the best matchup of the weekend. Kevin Riley surged late to win the Bears QB job over Nate Longshore, but Longshore is expected to see some action. Will TB Jahvid Best put on a show? Speaking of shows, Spartans tailback Javon Ringer and a huge OL will test the Bears' new 3-4 look.

Oregon 35, Washington 24: Justin Roper takes over Oregon's spread-option offense after Nate Costa went down with a knee injury, and his strong performance in the Sun Bowl suggests he is fully capable. He'll get a lot of help from Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount in the backfield and an offensive line that should have its way with the young Huskies front. A Washington upset will require a spectacular performance from QB Jake Locker, which is not beyond the realm of possibility.

Arizona 44, Idaho 20: Arizona needs a fast start and it will get it here. The veteran Wildcats offense should look good out of the gate, even without outstanding TE Rob Gronkowski. Moreover, the young defense probably will build up its confidence against an overmatched Idaho offense.

Arizona State 48, Northern Arizona 17: The Sun Devils get a preseason game. They might want to recall Appalachian State at Michigan a year ago and remember to show up.

Tennessee 27, UCLA 17: New UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel's debut is a tough one, with an SEC power coming to town. The UCLA defense and special teams could keep this one close, but the offense  -- even with guru Norm Chow calling the shots -- figures to struggle mightily against a tough Vols DL.   

Really labored over some of these.

Offense
QB Rudy Carpenter, Sr., Arizona State
RB Jahvid Best, So., California
RB Jeremiah Johnson, Sr., Oregon
TE Rob Gronkowski, So., Arizona
OL Alex Mack, Sr., California
OL Jeff Byers, Sr., USC
OL Juan Garcia, Sr., Washington
OL Max Unger, Sr., Oregon
OL Andy Levitre, Sr., Oregon State
WR Mike Thomas, Sr., Arizona
WR Brandon Gibson, Sr., Washington State
K Thomas Weber, So., Arizona State

Defense
DE Nick Reed, Sr., Oregon
DT Fili Moala, Sr., USC
DT Brian Price, So., UCLA
DE Dexter Davis, Jr., Arizona State
LB Rey Maualuga, Sr., USC
LB Brian Cushing, Sr., USC
LB Zach Follett, Sr., California
CB Jairus Byrd, Jr., Oregon
CB Alterraun Verner, Jr., UCLA
FS Taylor Mays, Jr., USC
SS Patrick Chung, Sr., Oregon
P Keenyn Crier, So., Arizona

KR Ronald Johnson, So., USC
PR Sammie Stroughter, Sr., Oregon State

The record speaks for itself. The Trojans:

• Own 11 national titles in five different decades.
• Own the highest all-time winning percentage vs. NCAA opponents of any conference (.704). That percentage ranks seventh among all Division I schools.
• Own a winning record vs. every Pac-10 team, ranging from 55-8-4 (Washington State) to 42-28-7 (UCLA).
• Own a winning record vs. every other BCS conference, including a 17-10-1 mark vs. the SEC.
• Own a 30-16 record in bowl games (.652). Those 30 wins rank second all-time to Alabama, which has 31.
• Own seven wins over No. 1-ranked teams, second only to Notre Dame’s eight.

History? It’s not just one great coach; it’s four: Howard Jones, John McKay, John Robinson and Pete Carroll.

Clutch teams also produce clutch performers: Seven Heisman Trophy winners.

And so on. Anyway, if nothing else it’s nice to have that edge over the SEC.

To kick things off, here's this year's pre-season media poll. Remember that the LA Times does not participate, but we do report ...

1. USC (38) - 389
2. Arizona State - 330
3. Oregon - 295
4. California (1) - 274
5. UCLA - 204
6. Oregon State - 192
7. Arizona - 185
8. Washington - 139
9. Stanford - 76
10. Washington State - 61

First place votes are in parenthesis, total votes are listed after the dash.

According to the league, the poll has picked the champs 25 of 47 years and the past 8 seasons in a row (a few of those were ties, of course). USC has been on top for six years in a row, the longest streak since an 18-year run from 1965-1982.

Here's the poll with total points
1. USC (38) 389
2. ASU 330
3. Oregon 295
4. Cal (1) 274
5. UCLA 204
6. Oregon State 192
7. Arizona 185
8. Washington 139
9. Stanford 76
10. Washington State 61

9:35 am -  Tyrone Willingham/QB Jake Locker - Washington
9:50 am -  Jim Harbaugh/C Alex Fletcher - Stanford
10:05 am - Paul Wulff/FL Brandon Gibson - Washington State
10:20 am - Jeff Tedford/C Alex Mack - California
10:35 am - Mike Stoops/QB Willie Tuitama - Arizona
10:50 am - Mike Bellotti/ROV Patrick Chung - Oregon
11:05 am - Break
11:15 am - Rick Neuheisel/DT Brigham Harwell - UCLA
11:30 am - Mike Riley/CB Brandon Hughes - Oregon State
11:45 am - Dennis Erickson/QB Rudy Carpenter - Arizona State
12:00 noon - Pete Carroll/SLB Brian Cushing - USC

This is a a good group of players so it should be interesting to see what some of these players have to say. I wonder what Harbaugh is going to say this year??

One of the really entertaining things about UCLA partisans Bruins Nation is how staunchly on-message it is at all times. It’s apparent some of its founders have political backgrounds. When the message was "Fire Karl Dorrell," no opportunity was missed, no sentence was written that might weaken the campaign. Not even after a 26-point win. Not even if it was November and L.A. could still potentially make the Rose Bowl. Nothing could stand in BN’s path.

Now that the message is "Head Coach Richard Neuheisel Is the Best CEO in America," the tone of the rhetoric has changed completely –– it’s all positive, all the time –– but the commitment to the message is as staunch as ever. Take the site’s official expectations for Neuheisel’s first season, for example.

BN always held Dorrell to a high standard. It was clear about this in 2006, when ringleader Nestor laid out the expectations for that season: No Room for Regression in 2006: 9 Wins & MUST BEAT SC. The loss of Ben Olson, Maurice Drew and four of the five leading receivers would not be counted as an excuse for a backward step after scraping through a string of last-second wins en route to a 9-2 regular season in 2005:

...anyone who has been closely following this program knew that we would have to have to deal with the loss of our top seven or eight players. You didn't need to be a D-A [sic] head coach to see that coming. ... to make the excuse of losing top players for a bad record next season is just ridiculous.

The Bruins upset SC, but clearly did regress overall, to 7-6 and a meh 5-4 in the conference. Off that disappointment, Nestor was equally clear about the expectations of a more veteran team in 2007: win 11 games, beat Southern Cal, and win the Pac-10. His standards came from the mouth of AD Dan Guerrero himself:

After four years Dorrell still hasn't been able to put together that season in which UCLA wins the Pac-10 and beats Southern Cal. However, I do believe he is boxed into such a corner at this point that this season decidedly will emerge as the "show me" season for Karl Dorrell, that will decide his ultimate fate in Westwood.

Morgan Center has already sent out clear cut signals laying down the expectations that they are expecting a football season in which UCLA will win the Pac-10 and beat Southern Cal (by 20 points) in that last game of the season. And this comment from DG (after winning [the school’s 100th all-time NCAA championship]) is consistent with that signal sent out earlier this spring:

Guerrero says when one of his coaches wins a title, it motivates the others. "There's always a buzz in this department," he says. "And the expectations here are very, very high. We expect to win national championships."

Obviously we expect DG to hold KD to same standards he holds our other magnificent athletic programs.

Obviously. And obviously, now that UCLA has a real Head Coach rather than an unqualified Doofus, for which BN lobbied so tirelessly, the excuses employed by the Dorrell apologists for the team’s mediocrity over the last five years will not do. Not with a team that returns its leading passer, leading rusher and five of its seven leading receivers –– to make the excuse of losing players for a bad record is just ridiculous, and the Bruins aren’t losing many. No, Head Football Coach/Amateur Guitarist/Innocent of All Charges Richard Neuheisel is the Head Football Coach who will finally push the Bruins over the top and fulfill Nestor’s high expectations in '08:

So, to sum it up right now at this snap shot of time, I expect UCLA to lose against Tennessee, BYU, Oregon, California, Washington and Arizona State. 

I see three toss up games against Arizona, Fresno State, Oregon State and three wins against Stanford, Washington State, and Southern Cal. 

So depending on how the toss up games go, the Bruins could finish either 6-6 or 3-9/4-8 (depending on which "conservative" projection we take as we go through the list above).

In other words, I will be ecstatic if somehow, despite all the questions surrounding this team, the program manages to finish with 6 wins and a victory over Southern Cal.
- - -
[Emphasis mine]

O rly? That’s, uh, quite a change of opinion of the Bruins’ potential in a single year, with a much better situation on the sideline: 6-6 at best?

Look closely at the expected losses and toss-ups. In the former category is BYU. Before the 2006 opener against Utah, Nestor was clear about his expectations of the result against a team from the Mountain West:

*09/02 Utah (w) - there is no excuse for not being able to get a win against some MWC team at the Rose Bowl. I will count this as a must win game for KD
- - -
[Emphasis mine]

About the Cougars, specifically, he was every bit as confident before last season:

BYU (w): BYU has a nice football program. But it has no business winning against UCLA at the Rose Bowl. Considering UCLA footballs teams tossed around BYU football teams even during their halcyon days with Ty Detmer, this game should serve as nice little season opener for Karl Dorrell’s football program ... they should face a huge uphill battle at the Rose Bowl as they will be working with a brand new QB (Max Hall, a transfer from ASU) to replace John Beck. Again this shouldn’t be a much of a game.
- - -
[Emphasis mine]

That confidence was warranted. Healthy, the Bruins beat the eventual MWC champion, as expected, 27-17. In December, extremely banged up, under an interim coach, they outgained the Cougars in the Las Vegas Bowl rematch and only lost on a blocked field goal on the last play. Clearly, a healthy team early in the season under a more competent coach should expect to beat a team that had no business competing with the Bruins under the old, lame duck regime that outperformed the Mormons, anyway:

@ BYU (L): ... BYU will be coming in this game fired up with returning stars such as Max Hall (3,848 yards passing) and Harvey Unaga [sic] (1,227 yards).  This will be another close game. However, I think the Cougars will pull this one out based on their home field advantage. I expect the Bruins to fall to 0-2...
- - -

Er. Well, okay, BYU is getting some nice preseason love, and the game is in the hostile confines of, uh, Provo. But Arizona offers an obvious win, right, since Zona is eight games behind UCLA in conference games in Mike Stoops’ tenure, and since Nestor wrote convincingly (and correctly) prior to 2006:

10/07 Arizona (w) - we need to get this win getting revenge for the embarrassment of last season. Not only was there no excuse for the embarrassment in Tucson last season, there simply was no excuse for losing to the Mildcats.
- - -
[Emphasis mine]

...and in 2007:

at Arizona (w): As the Bruins stumbled into Tucson everyone is going to be talking about what happened last time Dorrell’s team marched in with a gaudy record. If Dorrell has truly learned from his previous stumbles as a head coach, we expect him to have his team mentally ready and pull out a tough win. ... If he is truly worth the money (almost a million bucks a year) UCLA is spending on him, Bruins will bounce back...

Obviously, if HFCAGIOACRN is expected to earn his salary –– which with perks is triple what Dorrell earned –– he’s expected to trounce the still-struggling Mildcats and their injury-prone, pocket-bound quarterback in ‘08:

Arizona (T): ...Arizona beat up on the Bruins last year in Tucson by beating up on a hobbled Pat Cowan and running rough shot [sic] over DeWayne Walker’s offense [sic].  It will be interesting to see how the Bruin D with its young cubs matchup against the 'Zona offense and whether Walker has an answer for an athletic, multi dimensional QB like Tuitama. The optimistic part of me thinks that the Bruin D will rise to the occasion and the offense will click a little in its third game under Chow.  But, still, this is a toss up game in my book.
- - -
[Emphasis mine]

Well, UCLA has lost to Arizona twice in three years, albeit both times on the road, but okay. What about last year’s tenth-place finisher, Washington, which has barely a third of UCLA’s conference wins since Ty Willingham took over in 2005, and about which Nestor wrote in 2006:

09/23 @Washington (w) - there was no excuse for the pathetic performance against Washington at home last season when we eeked out a win. ...their lines are still a joke. This is a game the Bruins should be able to win on the road against one of the lower tier teams in the Pac-10.
- - -
[Emphasis mine]

.. and in 2007:

Washington (w): ...this time if Bruins find a way to choke like they did in Seattle, DeWayne Walker and his colleagues in the coaching staff will not be able to get away by playing a pathetic blame game. We will expect another Bruin win...

The Bruins did win, convincingly, scoring 34 points in the second half. Without question, a team with a real Head Football Coach for a change will be expected to have his team prepared to sustain that success against the worst team in the conference:

@ Washington (L):  The Bruins head up to Seattle where the entire Husky nation will be out for CRN’s blood. Willingham may be fighting for his coaching life and the Huskies will be anxious to feel better about Barbara Hedges’ follies by exacting "revenge" (in their minds) against Neuheisel. They will get their wish.
- - -

There’s Oregon State, then, about which we know from 2006:

*11/11 Oregon St (w) - ...a well-coached UCLA football team should never lose to Beavers at home.

Accordingly, Dorrell’s team beat the Beavers by 18 points that year, then demolished OSU by 26 last year in Corvallis. Dorrell easily out-recruited Mike Riley every single season according to Rivals. Almost every magazine picks UCLA to finish ahead of the Beavers. Obviously, an easy, easy win in the Rose Bowl...

Oregon St (T):  ...If the Beavers live up to their pre-season hype, they should be the favorite to win this game. But the Bruins have had their number in recent years.  Again, this is a toss up game and right now I am not sure what to expect.
- - -

So, uh, California, which lost six of its last seven conference games, including a nine-point loss to Dorrell’s incredibly mismanaged Bruins?

@ California (L): ...By this game, I would assume Jeff Tedford’s QB situation will become clear, in which (IMHO) Kevin Riley should emerge as the unquestioned number 1 QB in Strawberry Canyon. I think Cal is positioned to have a decent season next year, but in this game IMHO they will be the favorites at home. The Bruins fall...
- - -

And so on. Nestor’s own tally says it all: whether UCLA wins three or six games, it would only match Dorrell’s worst season at best. Whether it wins three or five Pac Ten games, it would only match Dorrell’s worst season at best.

My first thought when Neuheisel was hired was, "How long will it take for Bruins Nation to turn on him?" Obviously, with an all-out investment in coach-worship of this order, it’s going to be a long, long time. Most fans have high hopes for immediate improvement under a new coach, but they don’t understand how to protect that investment. Nestor does. People don’t give a motorcycle gang of angry sumo wrestlers this wide a berth.

Specifically: A loss to Washington must be a regression. After all, there is no excuse for losing to one of the lower-tier teams in the Pac Ten (the lowest tier, actually). A loss to BYU would be directly in line with the underachieving mediocrity that generated so much vitriol through the last four seasons. So would a third loss to Arizona in four years. After all, there is no excuse for not being able to get a win against a Mountain West team, and no excuse for losing to the perpetually lame Mildcats (again). A 6-6 regular season would be another sideways step in the unacceptable status quo. After all, obviously Bruin fans expect Dan Guerrero to hold CRN to the same standards to which he holds UCLA’s other magnificent athletic programs.

No, my child, we don’t expect any better. Great question, though.
- - -

It’s not that these projections are destined to be wrong –– without going into the returning roster in extreme detail, I happen to think, as BN has always maintained, that L.A. should always expect a winning season, including this season –– but in context, they are staggeringly hypocritical. Karl Dorrell never had a regular season worse than 6-6. He never had a losing record in Pac Ten play. Inheriting a team that finished 4-7, 6-5, 7-4 and 7-5 from 1999-2002, he was not given a mulligan for a 6-6 debut –– his record was 10-10 when the current clan at BN first took the drumbeat virtual at Fire Karl Dorrell midway through the 2004 season. The subhead of that blog, summarizing the worst losses of the early KD era, was, "12-13. FRESNO STATE. WYOMING. UCLA DESERVES BETTER." Three years later, the same folks appear very willing to accept losses to the high end of the Mountain West and to Pac Ten bottom-dwellers –– teams Dorrell’s last team defeated, as expected –– as a natural step in the rebuilding process. Six-win seasons were completely unacceptable for Dorrell, but HFCAGIOFACCRN can take all the time he needs.

What this is, really, is an admission that the "expectations" for Dorrell were ridiculous –– intentionally constructed to be beyond not only any independent projections but beyond the realistic grasp of anyone in his position. They were entertainingly obsessed with the subject, often mean about it, but I never disagreed with Bruins Nation that Dorrell should probably be canned. I still don’t. The hyperbole wasn’t necessary to reach that conclusion. But where did I get the idea they expected progress as a result?

The Game: USC at Washington State, October 18

Before: Arizona State

Why it Will be a Trap Game: Arizona State appears to be main contender in 2008 to end USC’s hegemony in the Pac-10. QB Rudy Carpenter will be in his senior year, it’s the second season under turnaround specialist Dennis Erickson, and the Sun Devils have seven returning starters on both sides of the ball. Given what Oregon has lost, ASU is the clear No. 2 in the conference this fall.

The week after that crucial game for USC comes a road match in Pullman, Washington. Washington State’s team is a bit thin in the first year of the Paul Wulff regime, and he is installing a new offense and defense there. His no-huddle spread offense could be dangerous against USC if the Trojans are napping the week after a big game.

Plus, USC won by only six the last time it played at Washington State, and if they can lose to Stanford last year they can lose to anyone. If things click for the Cougars by mid-October, they could be dangerous in this game.

Why it May Not Matter: Did I mention Washington State’s team is thin? It is, and it lost scholarships to Academic Progress Report-related penalties. Plus, there has been a rash of disciplinary and academic problems there. If injuries strike at all, they could torpedo the Cougars’ season entirely. Besides, the new schemes may not have gelled by this point, severely limiting Washington State’s chances in this game.

So I guess the takeaway here is that USC may or may not lose to Washington State.

The NCAA’s Academic Performance Program (APP) is creating positive behavioral change among Division I institutions, according to new four-year data released May 6.

The multi-year Academic Progress Rate (APR) data – with four years of data collection available for the first time – show upward trends in several categories, especially from 2005-06 to 2006-07.

GET DOWN, PARTY PEOPLE! GET DOWN!

We’re still digging through the data for this year, made even more fun by the NCAA’s propensity for releasing a press release on one page, a commentary on another, a spreadsheet here, a comprehensive list hosted on a Russian Military server and only accessible via several hours of white-knuckle hackery. Fortunately, the Indy Star has them all compiled nicely for you so you can revel in the uproarious ironies of a system where the University of Florida’s football team is on par with the United States Military Academy’s team in academic performance, and where Eastern Kentucky pwnz them both.

In the meantime, the only penalties of any relevance to college football go to Kansas and Washington State, who will suffer scholarship losses due to underwhelming APR scores. NCAA, beware: Mark Mangino will have his real estate agent call you to voice his displeasure with your metrics!

USC’s September 13th home opener against Ohio State will be the nationally-televised game of the week, as will Oregon at USC on October 4, Cal at USC on November 4 and Notre Dame at USC on November 29, all broadcast at 5 PM.  USC’s September 25th game at Oregon State will be the Thursday game of the week on ESPN and their season ender at UCLA will be broadcast nationally on ABC.

USC’s games against Arizona State, at Arizona, at Washington and at Stanford are all possible additions to the ABC schedule for regional broadcasts.

USC’s home opener at Virginia, curiously, is not on the ABC/ESPN schedule, and ABC will not be broadcasting any Pac Ten games the week of October 18th, when the Trojans travel to Washington State. (more…)

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UCLA: The Gin Rick-ey. Take one waterproof M-80 with custom dry-sealed eight foot fuse and set in bottom of highball glass. Cover with ice, 1 1/2 ozs gin, a splash of lime juice, and club soda. Light fuse. Garnish with lime, enjoy. Wait for it to blow up in your face.

Cal: The Tedford Falls Saving and Loan. Fill highball glass with ice, then add 1 1/2 ozs generic Tussin. Top with 18 year old Sherry Cask-aged Macallan Scotch. The initial taste should be one of great potential; the finish should leave you nauseated and disturbed, as if you were white water rafting with Kevin Bacon.

MP3 File

Wazzu: The Pullman Sleeper. Make a double-tall vodka and tonic with mid to low grade hooch. Don’t bother to mix it. Hide it in a very difficult to find place in the bar, and then make people look for it. (Like Wazzu football, it’s in a hard to find place, and once you get there, the quality’s about average.)

The glass half…full, isn’t it grasshopper?

Washington: The Willingham Paradox. Fill a glass with any dark liquor, and only fill it halfway. If your guest asks for more, explain that you already gave them what you had, and that the other bartender left you with only so much to pour from the bottle. If they complain it is half-empty, ask them “Are you sure it isn’t half-full?” and arch your eyebrow sagely. If they don’t like the drink at all, accuse them of not liking it because of its color.

Arizona: The Tuscon Two-Stepper. Just like a Tequila Sunrise, but include five ounces of Visine to ensure steady, debilitating loss for the consumer.

Oregon: The Screaming Swoosh. Add 8 oz Blue Curacao to neon-lined 64 oz chalice. Fill remainder with magnum of Moet Champagne. Watch and ooh as the color changes to a screaming green, and charge to Phil Knight.

Stanford: the Long Island Iced Tree. Mix eight expensive liquors into a single glass. Drink 12 in a row. Throw against wall, cry, repeat in exactly eight months.

Arizona State: The Fun Devil. Standard Bloody Mary recipe, but float 3 oz of 181 rum on top, ignite, and garnish with hard-boiled egg for added protein and drinking endurance. It’s the drink that burns twice! Goes especially well with golf cart rides into volcanoes.

USC: The Godberry Doggfather. Combine Hennessy and PowerThirst Godberry Flavor in a Gatorade barrel in order to win at drinking and therefore, like Pete Carroll says, win forever.

Oregon State: The Beaver. Combine 4 oz Clam Juice with high-quality organic American whisky. Stir with spruce sprig, and garnish with sardines. We could go nowhere else with this beverage but in this direction, and you knew we were snakes when you picked us up, didn’t you? DIDN’T YOU???

If true it is obviously not a good thing.

But lets wait on some definitive news before we jump to conclusions. I want to hear what the Docs say first.

If true you can count on a complete injury write-up in the very near future. Lets hope for the best.