A look at how prognosticators from around the country view this week's games.

Tim Sullivan, New York Post: Texas keeps plodding along. Oklahoma is 0-2 in its only true tests. Yes, Sam Bradford is back, but that's not enough for the Sooners. Take the Longhorns and give the points in the Red River Rivalry.

Jon Wilner, San Jose Mercury News: Idaho can become bowl eligible with a victory against Hawaii. Don't worry about the points because the Vandals are going to cover with ease. In the Pacific 10, watch out for those Washington Huskies at Arizona State.

Mike Hlas, Cedar Rapids Gazette: Hlastradamus loves friendly Pete Carroll more than surly Charlie Weis, but business is business. Take Notre Dame and the points against USC.

Double D, Boston Herald: The conservative playcalling of Jim Tressel is to blame for Terrelle Pryor falling way short of expectations. Nonethless, Ohio State is overdue for an offensive explosion. Take the Buckeyes and lay the points at Purdue.

John Werner, Waco Tribune-Herald: Baylor's offense is still trying to find itself without Robert Griffin. Playing Iowa State should help. The Bears win, 27-24.

Chuck Carlton, Dallas Morning News: Texas Tech quarterback Steven Sheffield is mobile, just maybe not enough to avoid Ndamukong Suh. Nebraska wins, 41-36.

Phil Steele: The top 25 forecast calls for Virginia Tech to defeat Georgia Tech, 34-27. In Madison, look for Wisconsin to edge Iowa, 24-23.

College Injury Report: A look at who is hurt and who is healthy.

Get the latest college numbers from Doc's Sports. Also check Doc's for the latest NFL numbers.

For complete TV listings, check Matt Sarzyniak's Sports.

Visit the Wiz's Resources page for all your reference needs.

On Wednesday, Boise State is at Tulsa. This could be one of the last major challenges for the Broncos, who are trying to go undefeated and earn a berth in a Bowl Championship Series game. Boise State is favored by 8.

Cincinnati and South Florida square off Thursday in the biggest game of the season thus far in the Big East. The Bulls are favored by 1.5 points.

On Friday, there's another Big East game between Pittsburgh and Rutgers. The visiting Panthers open as 3-point favorites.

Saturday's games of note: Texas (-1.5) vs. Oklahoma in Dallas; Iowa (-2) at Wisconsin; South Carolina at Alabama (-17); USC (-8) at Notre Dame; Texas Tech at Nebraska (-6); Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (pick); Stanford at Arizona (-4); and Arkansas at Florida (-22).

For the latest numbers, visit Doc's Sports.

2. USC

3. Alabama

4. Texas

5. Penn State

6. Brigham Young

7. California

8. Ole Miss

9. LSU

10. Boise State

On the Cusp:  Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Oregon State, Houston, Miami

Before the season starts no one really knows anything about anything. There are no sure things in sports. Too many variables can change a season in an instant. The experts want you think they know what they are talking about, but they really don’t. That being said, I am going to attempt to give some non-expert “homer” analysis before every game. I present to you Freerdo thoughts of the day. Here is my first edition:

USC has the one of the best and deepest offensive lines in the nation. If they can give Barkely time to throw, he will succeed. It might be nice to see the O-Line platoon. Games are won and lost on the front lines, look for the Trojans to wear out San Jose State.

Stafon Johnson is the most underrated running back in college football.

Another guy we don’t give enough love to, Stanley Havili. No one runs a better wheel route.

Ever been sitting in a movie and had to go to the bathroom? I am a fan of holding it (I hear it makes your wang bigger). But if you can’t this is a great application for your iphone. Courtesy of the Palmer Brothers.

Over Under on how many beers I will nervously drink while watching the new Matt Barkley era begin tomorrow: 7.

Speaking of 7, I love that Barkley picked that as his number. I really want this kid to succeed. He seems like a good guy.

NFL scouts, I would like to introduce you to Chris Galippo, Malcom Smith and Mike Morgan. The tradition of bad ass linebackers at USC lives on.

More thought provoking analysis after the jump...

• Returned a senior Heisman contender in his third year as a starter at quarterback.
 • Were subsequently exceptional (and balanced) on offense, finishing in the top six nationally in total yards and scoring.
 • Were ludicrously talented: Miami sent eight players up in the '03 draft (four in the first round), and USC had 11 players taken in the '06 draft (five in the first two rounds, all on offense).
 • Went wire-to-wire on top of both major polls entering the bowl game.

And, of course, both lost classics as relatively substantial favorites (Miami -11 over Ohio State, USC -7 over Texas) in the final game.

The superficial similarities between this year's Gators and the '05 Trojans are really startling -- both are coming off championship wins over Oklahoma in Miami and have no competition whatsoever as the preseason favorite -- down to their Heisman-winning, golden boy quarterbacks taking it easy in the classroom. There's also the "greatest ever?" hype that incensed so many fans ahead of the '06 Rose Bowl, and that looms ominously over the horizon if Florida gets out of Baton Rouge unscathed on Oct. 10. The parallels are hardly lost on Pete Carroll, given the task of throwing cold water on the Washington Times' "Tebow greatest?" story on Tuesday:

"Look, I think Tim Tebow is fabulous, but it seems like just yesterday we were having exactly the same discussion about Matt Leinart and along comes Texas and Vince Young. It can all change in the blink of an eye, so I think we have to let it all play out before we evaluate careers."

I'll sign on to that bit of hindsight/foresight, especially if it means we get a game as enthralling as the '03 Fiesta or '06 Rose bowls this January.

Another interesting corollary between '02 Miami and '05 USC: Both had to come from behind for a literally last-second win over a rival in October (Miami survived an upset bid from Florida State on the "Wide Left" kick; USC has the Bush Push at Notre Dame), and both were somewhat exposed in too-close-for-comfort shootouts late in the season against outmanned Virginia Tech and Fresno State, respectively, widely ignored signs of their eventual demise. Just worth keeping in mind if LSU or Georgia takes the Gators to the brink.

1. Florida (53)
2. Texas (4)
3. Oklahoma (1)
4. USC (1)
5. Alabama
6. Ohio State
7. Virginia Tech
8. Penn State
9. LSU
10. Mississippi

Follow the jump for the rest of the list.

First, the inside guys:

1. Brandon Spikes, Florida–An HP preseason and postseason AA in 2008, he is the Butkus favorite after collecting 93 tackles, 8 TFL and 4 interceptions last year.

2. Rolando McClain, Alabama–Built upon a big freshman year with an even bigger sophomore year.  Led the Tide with 95 tackles including 12 TFL and 8 pass deflections.

3. Pat Angerer, Iowa–Impressive in coverage, he had 5 interceptions last season while leading the Hawkeyes in tackles with 107.

4. Micah Johnson, Kentucky–The Wildcats were much improved defensively last year and Johnson is a big reason why.  He had 13 TFL and 93 tackles.

5. Joe Pawelek, Baylor–A tackling machine who can do it all.  Had 128 tackles, 7 pass breakups and 6 interceptions!

Honorable Mention: Ryan Reynolds, Oklahoma; Reggie Carter, UCLA; Martez Wilson, Illinois; Quan Sturdivant, North Carolina; Greg Jones, Michigan State

Outside Linebackers

1. Navorro Bowman, Penn State–All over the field for the Nittany Lions last year, collecting 106 tackles, along with 16.5 TFL and 5 pass break ups.  The latest addition to Linebacker U.

2. Sean Weatherspoon, Missouri–Had a staggering 155 tackles last year (which led the nation), including 18.5 for losses, 7 pass breakup and 3 interceptions. 

3. Rennie Curran, Georgia–A third-team selection to last year’s HP AA team, he led Georgia with 115 tackles and 10 TFL.

4. Mark Herzich, Boston College–As productive a linebacker as you’ll see in all of college football.  Had 110 tackles, with 13 TFL, 8 pass breakups and 6 interceptions. 

5. Keenan Clayton, Oklahoma–Helped keep things together for the Sooners last year when Ryan Reynolds went down.  Had 82 tackles, including 10 TFL and 9 pass breakups. 

6. Clinton Snyder, Stanford–A tough, mouth-to-mouth tackler who had 58 tackles and 6.5 TFL last year.  Very underrated. 

7. Kavell Conner, Clemson–Led a stout Clemson defense with 125 tackles and 6 TFL.   

8. Michael Mohamed, California–The Bears’ leading returning tackler with 87, he also had 3 interceptions and 6 TFL while starting only five games in 2008.

9. Nate Irving, NC State–A budding star who had 80 tackles, 11 TFL, 5 pass breakups and 4 interceptions despite only starting nine games last year due to injury.

10. Eric Norwood, South Carolina–An all-conference outside backer who had 75 tackles, 14.5 of them for a loss last year.

Honorable Mention: Patrick Benoist, Vanderbilt; Keaton Kristick, Oregon State; Cody Grimm, Virginia Tech; Sean Spence, Miami; Eric Norwood, South Carolina; Justin Winters, Buffalo

My favorite quote from the article above:

Hill “committed to Lute but Lute retired and I didn’t want him to go there not knowing who the coach was going to be,” Crawford said. “He always loved the school. He bleeds more red and blue than (USC’s) crimson and gold.”

Perfectly encapsulates where we stood with Solomon.

----

Jones is considered one of the nation's top high school senior point guards, though asking him alone to fill the team-high 37.3 minutes per game Hackett logged last season would seem a tall order. Jones spent one season at Oak Hill after spending previous seasons at American Christian High in Aston (Pa.) and Rice High in New York City.

While USC is said to be his school of choice, Jones has changed his mind before. He verbally committed to Louisville, then switched to Virginia Tech before backing out of that in March.

Many believe Lamont is ready to step in right away at the PG spot.  He has a quick step, solid handles, and decent jumper.  With our PG situation, it's almost guaranteed he'll get major playing time immediately.

Of the “pre-preseason” top 25s that have been issued in the past couple months, there seems to be a consensus that the Florida Gators, who lose Percy Harvin going into '09 but retain nearly everyone else of note, will once again be the team to beat; Texas and Oklahoma are also expected to return as powerhouses. Below that, though, the selections range from the brave to the downright silly. Among the most inexplicable:

•Tony Barnhart (Atlanta Journal-Constitution) was the first out of the gate, throwing up a top 25 literally the same night as the BCS National Championship Game, and it shows. Barnhart has Alabama in the top five despite the fact that they lose their starting QB (and were less than a week removed from getting punked by Utah), Oklahoma State at #7, Florida State at #12, and Vanderbilt at #25. I realize you're an SEC guy, but jeez, Tony. He also provided an object lesson in the dangers of sticking your neck out too early by putting Pittsburgh at #10 based on “running back LeSean McCoy and seven starters on defense coming back”; McCoy declared for the NFL draft less than a week later.

•Dennis Dodd (CBS Sports) shared Barnhart's optimism for Alabama (#4) and pumped Kansas at #14, saying “any team with quarterback Todd Reesing is capable of anything.” Anything except for winning the Big 12 North, evidently.

•Matt Hayes (The Sporting News) will see your Notre Dame optimism and raise you: He's got the Irish at #11 based on “the confidence QB Jimmy Clausen gained from his play at Hawaii.” Yes, there's nothing like beating up on the nation's 88th-ranked pass-efficiency defense in a bowl game to mold a player into a leader. Hayes also has Ole Miss at #5 and Auburn at #24, which would make him one of exactly four people in the country who think Auburn will be better with Gene Chizik than they were with Tommy Tuberville (and the other three are Gene Chizik, Jay Jacobs, and Jay Gogue).

•Stewart Mandel (SI.com), like Hayes, has Ole Miss at #5, and like Barnhart he gets burned by early personnel assumptions gone wrong: He puts Oklahoma State at #6, explaining that “nearly every key player is back” on the Cowboy offense, but three of OSU's top four receivers left the program for one reason or another within a month of Mandel posting his list. He's also got Florida State at #18.

•Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News) says he updated his list on January 21, which makes one wonder what his original rankings looked like. He's got Florida State at #7 and Oklahoma State at #6, saying he actually dropped the Cowboys because he's “now counting [the Oklahoma game] as a loss for OSU.” The Sooners, last seen piling 61 points on the Cowboys, are grateful for your generosity, sir. Wilner also thinks Pitt and West Virginia will be better without LeSean McCoy and Pat White, respectively — he's got both in his top 25 despite the fact that neither team cracked the final coaches' poll of 2008.

•College Football News is buying into the ACC big-time in '09: They've got North Carolina at #9, Georgia Tech at #11, and Clemson at #15. And based on their color-coding system, CFN thinks Miami “should be worse” than they were last year, yet they've still got the Hurricanes, 7-6 and unranked at the end of 2008, at #19 on their list. Strangely, the one ACC team to get downgraded relative to last season is the defending conference champions — Virginia Tech winds up just one slot ahead of the 'Canes.

•Mark Schlabach (ESPN.com) has also revised an earlier list, but he's still got Alabama at #4 despite openly conceding what huge losses John Parker Wilson and Andre Smith will be; he's also got Notre Dame at #22.

- - -
Doug Gillet is the proprietor of Hey Jenny Slater and a regular contributor to Dr. Saturday.

With more returning starters than USC or Oklahoma, the early favorites of the talking heads are the Florida Gators and Texas Longhorns.

Here's a breakdown of the pundit pre-pre-preseason projections, with click-through links to their full lists.

Rivals.com
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. USC
4. Oklahoma
5. LSU
Highest Projected non-BCS: #9 - Boise State

Mark Schlabach (ESPN)
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. USC
4. Oklahoma
5. Alabama
Highest Projected non-BCS: #8 - Boise State

Dennis Dodd (CBS Sportsline)
1. Florida
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas
4. Alabama
5. Virginia Tech
Highest Projected non-BCS: #15 - Utah

Mr. College Football Tony Barnhart (Atlanta Constitution-Journal)
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. USC
4. Alabama
5. Oklahoma
Highest Projected non-BCS: #17 - TCU

Bruce Feldman (ESPN)
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
4. Oregon
5. Virginia Tech
Highest Projected non-BCS: None in Top 10

Matt Hayes (Sporting News)
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
4. Alabama
5. Ole Miss
Highest Projected non-BCS: #18 - BYU

So... if you believe the pundits... go ahead and book your reservations now, Gator & Longhorn fans. But... then again, that didn't work out too well for Georgia fans last year, so... maybe just watch the games, first.

PS - On a side note, let me just say that I am glad to be back in the saddle. It's nice to see the community has grown to the point where our contributors have taken over with amazing, self-generated content. Keep these great posts coming because... there is no off-season, boys.

Comment on Who will be the 2009-2010 BCS National Champion?...

1. Alabama (12-0) .9713 1 1 2815 .9965 1 1521 .9974 3 92 .920
2. Oklahoma (11-1) .9351 3 4 2569 .9094 2 1397 .9161 1 98 .980
3. Texas (11-1) .9223 2 3 2575 .9115 3 1396 .9154 2 94 .940
4. Florida (11-1) .8851 4 2 2619 .9271 4 1385 .9082 6 82 .820
5. USC (10-1) .8076 5 5 2378 .8418 5 1298 .8511 8 73 .730
6. Utah (12-0) .7844 6 7 2111 .7473 7 1153 .7561 5 85 .850
7. Texas Tech (11-1) .7805 7 8 2090 .7398 8 1116 .7318 4 87 .870
8. Penn State (11-1) .7373 8 6 2177 .7706 6 1176 .7711 9 67 .670
9. Boise State (12-0) .7034 9 9 1937 .6857 9 1044 .6846 7 74 .740
10. Ohio State (10-2) .6340 10 10 1856 .6570 10 999 .6551 11 59 .590
11. Texas Christian (10-2) .5633 14 12 1502 .5317 11 836 .5482 10 61 .610
12. Ball State (12-0) .5306 15 11 1526 .5402 13 765 .5016 12 55 .550
13. Cincinnati (10-2) .4831 16 13 1425 .5044 12 770 .5049 15 44 .440
14. Oklahoma State (9-3) .4276 12 14 1217 .4308 15 613 .4020 T-13 45 .450
15. Georgia Tech (9-3) .4046 22 16 1065 .3770 16 590 .3869 T-13 45 .450
16. Georgia (9-3) .3311 11 20 833 .2949 19 440 .2885 16 41 .410
17. Boston College (9-3) .3202 21 19 834 .2952 20 435 .2852 17 38 .380
18. Brigham Young (10-2) .3142 18 17 990 .3504 18 461 .3023 18 29 .290
19. Oregon (9-3) .3041 23 15 1076 .3809 14 658 .4315 23 10 .100
20. Missouri (9-3) .2818 13 18 896 .3172 17 470 .3082 20 22 .220
21. Michigan State (9-3) .2550 19 21 688 .2435 21 414 .2715 19 25 .250
22. Northwestern (9-3) .1216 24 22 414 .1465 22 333 .2184 NR 0 .000
23. Pittsburgh (8-3) .1012 25 23 346 .1225 23 154 .1010 T-24 8 .080
24. Florida State (8-4) .0768 20 29 30 .0106 29 15 .0098 21 21 .210
25. Virginia Tech (8-4) .0573 NR 27 71 .0251 26 41 .0269 22 12 .120

1.  Chris Wells, Ohio State–Wells holds on to the top spot this week, as we’re taking his word that his foot is going to be okay.  He most likely will miss the Ohio game this weekend, but that shouldn’t affect his Heisman chances too much, as there is a precedent for Heisman winners missing early-season games (namely Charles White and Bo Jackson).  It will, however, increase the stakes for the huge matchup the following Saturday at No. 1 USC.  He must do well (100+ yards) in a Buckeye win, or go crazy (180+ yards) in a close Buckeye loss, to solidify his status as the Heisman frontrunner.

Last week:    13 carries, 111 yards, 8.5 ypc, 1 TD against Youngstown State

2. Chase Daniel, Missouri–Daniel got off to a great start to his season with a nice performance in an exciting win over a ranked Illinois squad.   It’s pretty clear that Daniel is going to have the numbers needed to win the Heisman, barring injury.  If he can lead his team to the Big 12 title, then he should finish no worse than second and could even win the trophy.  The next three weeks Mizzou plays three cupcakes, so Daniel can pad his stats before a potentially high-profile game against Nebraska on Oct 4.

Last week:  26 of 45 for 323 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int against No. 20 Illinois

3. Pat White, West Virginia–I wrote in my Heisman Preview that White would need to step it up in the passing game to make a serious Heisman run and he did just that in week one.  By season’s end, no one will remember that his 5 TD passes came against lowly Villanova–they will just be part of his statistical total.   He is already 1/4 of the way to having 20 TD passes on the season, which should impress voters who think he is just a glorified running back.  White got a bit of a gift this weekend when WVU’s next opponent, East Carolina, beat Virginia Tech.  He can now showcase his abilities in a game that some people might actually care about, before getting a chance to hog the spotlight on Sept. 18 (Thursday night) at Colorado.

Last week: 25 of 33 for 208 yards, 5 TDs, 0 ints against Villanova

4.  Mark Sanchez, USC–It seems exruciatingly early to already be touting a USC quarterback for the Heisman, but there it is.  Sanchez benefitted, believe it or not, from the attention created by his dislocated knee cap in the weeks prior to USC’s game against Virginia.  Suddenly, he became the subject of increased speculation, which made him more of a known quantity.  He was able to reward that speculation and attention with an outstanding game against the Cavaliers.  He is a potential boom-bust candidate.  As long as USC is doing well and he is doing well, he’s going to hover near the top of this list.  But, should his team falter, he will bear the brunt of the blame.  The Ohio State game will determine his Heisman future.  Should he do well in a USC win, then he will zoom into the top two or three and become one of the main contenders.  If the Trojans lose, then he can start working on his resume for a run at the Heisman in 2009.

Last week: 26 of 35, 338 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int against Virginia

5. Colt McCoy, Texas–Don’t look now, but McCoy looks to be back and better than ever.  What has largely gone unnoticed over the past year is how effective a runner the Texas QB has become.  For now, he will be helped by the fact that Texas is below the radar, as he can perform without too much pressure until the matchup with Oklahoma on Oct. 11.  By then, McCoy could be on his way to a remarkable season and people will just be starting to realize it.  If McCoy can help slay OU and Mizzou in back-to-back weeks, he’ll have as good a case for the Heisman as anyone in this race.

Last week:  24 of 29, 222 yards, 3 TDs, 0 Ints, 12 carries, 103 yards, 1 TD against FAU.

6. Matt Stafford, Georgia–Is Stafford finally ready to break out as a passer?  Will Mark Richt let him put up the numbers he needs to compete for the Heisman?  Looks like it so far.  But Stafford won’t have a chance to break into the top five of this list until he survives the gauntlet of South Carolina, Arizona State and Alabama that begins in a couple weeks.

Last week: 13 of 21, 275 yards, 2 TDs, 0 Ints against Georgia Southern.

7.  Percy Harvin, Florida–Harvin is hanging on a bit in this race.  He missed the Gators’ first game against Hawaii and is slated to play against Miami this Saturday.  But how healthy is he, really?  We won’t know until we see him play.  One thing is for sure:  He probably needs to explode against Miami to get back in the thick of the Heisman hunt.  A lackluster game, or another DNP could mean his chances for the Heisman have gone bye bye.

Last Week:  DNP

8. Stafon Johnson, USC–Johnson is the most likely USC back to gain the yards needed to challenge for the Heisman.  However, it seems apparent that USC is sticking with its tailback by committee approach.  Unless Johnson can get untracked in a big way against Ohio State, he’ll drop from this list.

Last week:  9 carries, 28 yards, 1 TD against Virginia

9. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech–Harrell had his typical day against Eastern Washington.  But until people stop yawning at his 500-yard passing games, he’s just a fringe candidate waiting for an opportunity.

Last week:  43 of 58, 536 yards, 2 TDs, 1 int

* * *

If the vote were held today

1. Tim Tebow

2. Chase Daniel

3. Pat White

4. Chris Wells

5. Mark Sanchez

6. Knowshon Moreno

7. Graham Harrell

8. James Laurinaitis

9. Colt McCoy

10. Sam Bradford

You hear it a lot.  Way too much, in fact.

Now, here’s the thing.  The SEC is currently the top conference.  It was amazingly good last year and will be amazingly good this year.

But it is not set in stone that the SEC is the default top conference every year, or at least it shouldn’t be.  Yet, that seems to be the prevailing opinion among the college football media, year-in, year-out.

To refute this notion, I present to you… the data provided by the indispensable CollegeFootballDataWarehouse.

The CFBDW has a ranking of teams and conferences based on (1) Winning Percentage Points (2) Schedule Points (3) National Championship Points and (4) Big 4 Bowl Points.

For the period 2000-2007, the BCS conferences are ranked as follows (total points is the first bit of data, followed left to right by the previously mentioned totals):

As you can see, the SEC is on top in this decade (941 total points), but it’s not a slam dunk.  And, the real reason for the top ranking is due to the SEC having 12 teams to accumulate its points vs. 10 teams for the Pac-10.  The Pac-10 (923 points) gets to No. 2 largely on the strength of its schedule, while the SEC is dragged down somewhat by playing the fourth-toughest schedule among the six major conferences.  Averaging the total points per team per conference, the Pac-10 averages 92.3 and the SEC averages 78.4.

If you look at the top 25 programs for 2000-2007, another interesting piece of data is revealed: