One of the followers of the tao of Leinart, ironically, is Oregon quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, who appeared to be on the wrong end of the 44-10 slaughter USC committed against the Ducks Saturday night. You may have thought you were watching a bigger, faster, stronger team right its season by outgaining a capable but overmatched Oregon outfit 598 yards to 239, holding the Duck offense to a punt or turnover on eight straight possessions and intercepting Masoli to set up the final, dagger touchdown from Mitch Mustain to David Ausberry in the closing minutes.

Oh, ye feeble minds. Let the wise Masoli reveal to you the reality behind the mirage:

"We feel like we're the better team."

"Tonight they played better than us, and the score indicated that. But I still feel like we're the better team, we just gave that one away."

"We just made some mistakes that we usually don't."

"I feel like our football team is better all-around, but they played better tonight, so they got the 'W'.''

You can assess an abstract philosophical question like "who's better?" in any number of closed-minded, "factual" methods. Head-to-head: the Ducks were outscored by 34 points and outgained by 359 yards Saturday, and have lost four of five to the Trojans since 2002 by an average of 19 points. Against the rest of the Pac-10: USC is 41-6 to Oregon's 29-19 and has won or shared six straight conference championships since '02 to Oregon's zero. In the polls: the Trojans have finished six straight seasons in the AP's year-end top four, at least ten spots better each season than the Ducks, who haven't finished in the top ten since 2001, Pete Carroll's first season in L.A. and Jeremiah Masoli's first year in middle school.

But you're thinking about results, man. You need to expand your mind. Instead of talking about wins and losses, you need to think about the essence of Oregon. Think about what would happen on a neutral field, if everyone was healthy, if the Ducks executed every block, threw tight spirals, stopped dropping passes, didn't hold, blow coverages, miss field goals, go for the ball instead of the tackle or commit stupid penalties. Picture what would have happened Saturday night if the game was exactly the opposite of how it actually went, in reality. Who's the better team now?

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Photo of Masoli via Getty Images.

Yes, the Trojans have lost a game and lost ground. But no other one-loss team ranks higher in the coaches’ and Harris Interactive polls, the two that factor into the BCS rankings. USC also has fewer teams to hurdle after a weekend full of upsets.

USC landed at No. 7 in the first Harris poll, released Sunday (see below). The top six are unbeaten Oklahoma, LSU, Alabama, Missouri, Texas and Penn State. Would-be title contenders Georgia and Florida are 10th and 11th, respectively, after stumbling at home Saturday.

The Trojans fell from first to ninth in the coaches’ poll, with BYU and Texas Tech also sneaking ahead of them. Georgia dropped from third to 10th, Florida from fourth to 13th.

USC’s next opponent, Oregon, jumped from 22nd to 20th in the coaches’ poll after destroying Washington State, 63-14. The Ducks are 21st in the Harris poll. They are the only other Pac-10 school in either Top 25.

The first BCS standings, which also use the average of six computer rankings, come out Oct. 19.

Harris Interactive Poll: harrispoll092808

Related link:

• Mark Sanchez: ‘We’re still in good shape’

The Trojans, meanwhile, have the luxury of simulating Ohio State's golden child recruit with their own golden child recruit:

USC tailback Joe McKnight played quarterback on the scout team Tuesday to emulate Ohio State freshman Terrelle Pryor, but not just because Pryor is fast.

When Pryor played in high school, he sometimes had issues with fumbles, so the Trojans' defense tried to knock the ball loose from McKnight,who has had his own fumbling issues at USC.
[...]
"We know [Pryor] is going to play," Carroll said. "They're trying to get him ready. They're not going to back off."

Actually, if OSU's been holding back on offense, who knows what it's going to pull out of the bag. It's a lock Pryor will play (29 snaps in the first two games), but put me in the camp that thinks if Ohio State needs Pryor to make a difference, it's probably in more trouble than a freshman who's not Herschel Walker or Adrian Peterson can get the Buckeyes out of.

• Wait, aren't you the guys we should never trust, ever? The San Jose Mercury News' Jon Wilner shows the benefit of being around a beat a while: you start to recognize names. And when Wilner heard the defenders of the controversial Jake Locker unsportsmanlike call in Washington's loss to BYU were Dave Cutaia and Larry Farina, it triggered a couple memories:

The biggest problem, not only with what happened in Husky Stadium but also with the response from [Pac-10 offices], is credibility.

The men involved have zero:

The game referee, Farina, was in charge of the worst-officiated Pac-10 game of the ‘07 season: Oregon State-Washington, in which the officials lost control, fights broke out, players were ejected and Yvenson Bernard’s knee was clearly, obviously down before he fumbled at the goalline.

Everyone saw it, and yet Farina and his gang missed it -- missed it so badly they were banned from working any bowl games in 2007.

And then there’s Cutaia, the Pac-10’s coordinator of officials who defended the Locker call. He was only the lead ref for the Oregon-Oklahoma game.

Cutaia and his crew bungled that game like no game has ever been bungled -- so badly the Pac-10 apologized to Oklahoma and Cutaia was suspended for a game by the league.
- - -
Emphasis in original; OSU/U-Dub link added.

Pac Ten coaches weighed in on the call, and they agree with you (most of you): it was a stupid call. Pete Carroll says it on video here.

• . Texas' game with Arkansas will be postponed until Sept. 27th as Hurricane Ike bears down on the Lonestar coast. Austin is too far inland to be rocked on a hurricane scale, but it's going to be getting mighty wet around here Saturday night, I tell you what -- although for Arkansas, if the Hogs are really thinking, the slop might be the only hope.

But LSU, which had been eyeing Ike warily its own self, will kick off as expected in Tiger Stadium at 7 p.m., which will only feel like a hurricane for North Texas.

Quickly . . .

Displaced Trojan Carson Palmer can't find a bet on Saturday's game. . . . Maybe Alabama's offense will be back on track with Andre Smith back in the lineup against Western Kentucky. . . . Stephen Garcia could be in South Carolina's quarterback mix against Georgia, or, you know, could not be. Nobody at USC practice is telling. . . . Kansas is lining up a redshirt freshman, Jeff Spikes, across from South Florida all-American George Selvie. . . . Nebraska's Lydon Murtha will start for the first time this season against New Mexico State, off a nasty "leg infection." . . . Suspended Maurice Evans and Abe Koroma are still in limbo for Penn State's game Saturday with, eh, Syracuse. . . . UCLA still has no idea what the rest of the script has in store for Kevin Craft. . . . And outlets in Oklahoma and Colorado are remembering Eddie Crowder, ex-Sooner quarterback and Colorado coach/athletic director, who died Tuesday of complications from leukemia.

>i>- - -
Photo of Joe McKnight via Getty Images; Photo of Eddie Crowder via the Boulder Daily Camera.

1. Chris Wells, Ohio State–Things are getting tricky when it comes to analyzing Wells’ chance at the Heisman. At this point, there are a ton of variables in play. First off, he is hurt. Second, most of us don’t know how healthy he will be against USC on Saturday. Third, he has gained a slight advantage in that a loss to USC could be seen as the result of his being hurt, thus increasing his perceived worth to his team. Fourth, a win over USC with Wells making a minimal contribution could hurt his perceived worth to his team (they still won even though he was hurt? He must not be that important). Fifth, he could potentially have a Willis Reed type of moment, gutting out a winning touchdown, for instance, while not necessarily performing well in the overall game due to being hobbled. Thus a premium would be placed on his guttiness in the clutch. Last, he could just end up being a complete non-factor, but I think he now has a built in excuse and so won’t be dramatically penalized by the voters for it. So, you see all the ways to look at it? The fact that there are so many possibilities is a testament to the high stakes of the game this Saturday vs. USC. Unless Wells and Ohio State have a total meltdown, I believe he is unlikely to be eliminated from the race by virtue of his injury.

That’s because after USC, the Buckeyes will move on to the Big Ten schedule and, assuming he is healthy, Beanie will pile up a ton of yardage. Even if he has a rough game against the Trojans, he is likely to come back and put up 1,700-plus yards, which would at least make him a legitimate candidate, especially if the Buckeyes are undefeated or headed for the BCS title game once again.

Last week: Injured. Season: 13 carries, 111 yards, 8.5 ypc, 1 TD

2. Chase Daniel, Missouri–Daniel is moving closer to taking the lead in the Heisman Watch. He’s been exemplary so far and the Tigers have played well. What more can you ask for? If Wells stumbles against USC, he’ll be the front runner for the Heisman.

Then, all he has to do is keep winning. No small task.

Last week: 16 of 17, 245 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int. Season: 42 of 62, 568 yards, 6 TDs, 1 int., 9 carries, 46 yards

3. Mark Sanchez, USC–Sanchez is a shaky No. 3 right now. Let’s face it, he’s had one game. But the Ohio State game is such a high-profile affair, he is in a unique situation to capitalize. After Saturday, he could be out of the race, or sitting at the top.

Just a couple of the benefits/pitfalls to being the quarterback for the No. 1 team.

Last week: Off Season: 26 of 35, 338 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int.

4. Colt McCoy, Texas–McCoy is quietly off to a nice start for the Longhorns, but he will stay a few slots back in the race until the Oklahoma and Missouri games play out. Those two games could go a long way in determining this year’s winner.

Last week: 20 of 29, 282 yards, 4 TDs, 1 int Season: 44 of 58, 504 yards, 7 TDs, 1 int, 17 carries, 108 yards, 1 TD

5. Matt Stafford, Georgia–Stafford looks to be maturing as a quarterback and is off to his best start yet. There will be no shortage of big games for him to show his stuff. For now, he’s a candidate as long as UGA is undefeated.

Last week: 18 of 28, 213 yards, 2 TDs, 0 ints. Season: 31 of 49, 488 yards, 4 TDs, 0 ints.

6. Percy Harvin, Florida–Harvin came back against Miami, but didn’t set the world on fire. He’s got one more week to show his stuff, or else the clock will run out on his Heisman hopes.

Last week/Season: 5 carries, 27 yards, 1 TD, 1 catch, 12 yards

7. Stafon Johnson, USC–Johnson had minimal impact against Virginia, but he’s got this big game against Ohio State to do his thing. While USC seems determined to make all its tailbacks happy, it will go with the hot hand when necessary. If Johnson does not break out against OSU, he’s off this list for good.

Last week: Off Season: 9 carries, 28 yards, 1 TD

8. Pat White, West Virginia–White is hanging by a thread in the race after his WVU team lost to East Carolina, 24-3. He was shut down for the most part and it looks like WVU is really missing Coach Rod. Unless the Mountaineers run the table the rest of the way, White won’t have a shot.

Last week: 11 of 18, 72 yards, 0 TDs, 0 ints, 97 yards on 20 carries. Season: 36 of 51 for 280 yards, 5 TDs, 1 int., 29 carries, 160 yards, 0 TDs.

Dropped Out: Graham Harrell–For Harrell to have a shot at winning, he had to break NCAA records for yards and TDs in a season. With just 3 TDs in two games, that looks unlikely right now.

If the Vote were Held Today

1. Tim Tebow

2. Chase Daniel

3. Chris Wells

4. Knowshon Moreno

5. Mark Sanchez

6. Pat White

7. Graham Harrell

8. Jahvid Best

9. Matt Stafford

10. Percy Harvin

1.  Chris Wells, Ohio State–Wells holds on to the top spot this week, as we’re taking his word that his foot is going to be okay.  He most likely will miss the Ohio game this weekend, but that shouldn’t affect his Heisman chances too much, as there is a precedent for Heisman winners missing early-season games (namely Charles White and Bo Jackson).  It will, however, increase the stakes for the huge matchup the following Saturday at No. 1 USC.  He must do well (100+ yards) in a Buckeye win, or go crazy (180+ yards) in a close Buckeye loss, to solidify his status as the Heisman frontrunner.

Last week:    13 carries, 111 yards, 8.5 ypc, 1 TD against Youngstown State

2. Chase Daniel, Missouri–Daniel got off to a great start to his season with a nice performance in an exciting win over a ranked Illinois squad.   It’s pretty clear that Daniel is going to have the numbers needed to win the Heisman, barring injury.  If he can lead his team to the Big 12 title, then he should finish no worse than second and could even win the trophy.  The next three weeks Mizzou plays three cupcakes, so Daniel can pad his stats before a potentially high-profile game against Nebraska on Oct 4.

Last week:  26 of 45 for 323 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int against No. 20 Illinois

3. Pat White, West Virginia–I wrote in my Heisman Preview that White would need to step it up in the passing game to make a serious Heisman run and he did just that in week one.  By season’s end, no one will remember that his 5 TD passes came against lowly Villanova–they will just be part of his statistical total.   He is already 1/4 of the way to having 20 TD passes on the season, which should impress voters who think he is just a glorified running back.  White got a bit of a gift this weekend when WVU’s next opponent, East Carolina, beat Virginia Tech.  He can now showcase his abilities in a game that some people might actually care about, before getting a chance to hog the spotlight on Sept. 18 (Thursday night) at Colorado.

Last week: 25 of 33 for 208 yards, 5 TDs, 0 ints against Villanova

4.  Mark Sanchez, USC–It seems exruciatingly early to already be touting a USC quarterback for the Heisman, but there it is.  Sanchez benefitted, believe it or not, from the attention created by his dislocated knee cap in the weeks prior to USC’s game against Virginia.  Suddenly, he became the subject of increased speculation, which made him more of a known quantity.  He was able to reward that speculation and attention with an outstanding game against the Cavaliers.  He is a potential boom-bust candidate.  As long as USC is doing well and he is doing well, he’s going to hover near the top of this list.  But, should his team falter, he will bear the brunt of the blame.  The Ohio State game will determine his Heisman future.  Should he do well in a USC win, then he will zoom into the top two or three and become one of the main contenders.  If the Trojans lose, then he can start working on his resume for a run at the Heisman in 2009.

Last week: 26 of 35, 338 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int against Virginia

5. Colt McCoy, Texas–Don’t look now, but McCoy looks to be back and better than ever.  What has largely gone unnoticed over the past year is how effective a runner the Texas QB has become.  For now, he will be helped by the fact that Texas is below the radar, as he can perform without too much pressure until the matchup with Oklahoma on Oct. 11.  By then, McCoy could be on his way to a remarkable season and people will just be starting to realize it.  If McCoy can help slay OU and Mizzou in back-to-back weeks, he’ll have as good a case for the Heisman as anyone in this race.

Last week:  24 of 29, 222 yards, 3 TDs, 0 Ints, 12 carries, 103 yards, 1 TD against FAU.

6. Matt Stafford, Georgia–Is Stafford finally ready to break out as a passer?  Will Mark Richt let him put up the numbers he needs to compete for the Heisman?  Looks like it so far.  But Stafford won’t have a chance to break into the top five of this list until he survives the gauntlet of South Carolina, Arizona State and Alabama that begins in a couple weeks.

Last week: 13 of 21, 275 yards, 2 TDs, 0 Ints against Georgia Southern.

7.  Percy Harvin, Florida–Harvin is hanging on a bit in this race.  He missed the Gators’ first game against Hawaii and is slated to play against Miami this Saturday.  But how healthy is he, really?  We won’t know until we see him play.  One thing is for sure:  He probably needs to explode against Miami to get back in the thick of the Heisman hunt.  A lackluster game, or another DNP could mean his chances for the Heisman have gone bye bye.

Last Week:  DNP

8. Stafon Johnson, USC–Johnson is the most likely USC back to gain the yards needed to challenge for the Heisman.  However, it seems apparent that USC is sticking with its tailback by committee approach.  Unless Johnson can get untracked in a big way against Ohio State, he’ll drop from this list.

Last week:  9 carries, 28 yards, 1 TD against Virginia

9. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech–Harrell had his typical day against Eastern Washington.  But until people stop yawning at his 500-yard passing games, he’s just a fringe candidate waiting for an opportunity.

Last week:  43 of 58, 536 yards, 2 TDs, 1 int

* * *

If the vote were held today

1. Tim Tebow

2. Chase Daniel

3. Pat White

4. Chris Wells

5. Mark Sanchez

6. Knowshon Moreno

7. Graham Harrell

8. James Laurinaitis

9. Colt McCoy

10. Sam Bradford

ESPN College GameDay Appearances By School

Rank School Shows
1. Florida 28
2. Ohio State 22
3t. Florida State 21
3t. Michigan 21
5t. Notre Dame 18
5t. Oklahoma 18
7t. Tennessee 17
7t. Miami (Fla.) 17
9. Nebraska 15
10. Southern Cal 14

Note: The list takes into account that Corso and the gang roll into Gainesville this weekend for Steve Spurrier's favorite matchup.

Interesting that LSU, Georgia, Texas, West Virginia, and other traditional powers don't make the list. I guess that just goes to show how dominate Nebraska, FSU, and Miami were in days gone by.

Comment on Top 10 ESPN GameDay appearances ranked by team...

Unlike a lot of Heisman watches, my preseason list is intended to determine which players have the best chance of actually winning the trophy at season’s end. If a player does not have a realistic shot at winning the Heisman, he is not on this list.

Therefore, the following ranking is NOT a prediction of the eventual order of the voting (so calm down Gator fans), but a gauge of the strengths of each of the top candidates based on The Ten Heismandments. Other players who are not on this list will get votes and finish high in the race but won’t win.  I will put out top 10 updates predicting the order of the vote from time to time, but this is not one of those times.

I can say with extreme confidence that the Heisman winner will come from the following group of players. THESE ARE THE GUYS WITH THE BEST CHANCE! Here we go:

1. Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells, Jr., RB., Ohio State–A perfect candidate. A top talent from a traditional power that will compete for a national title. Has the schedule and the name recognition to run away with this. His stiff arm could be more famous than the trophy’s by season’s end.

2. Chase Daniel, Sr., QB, Missouri–Outside of Tim Tebow, he’s the top returning vote getter from last season. Well-known quarterback playing in an exciting offense and an emerging program. Will put up big numbers once again and could win the Heisman if the Tigers make a serious title run.

3. Patrick White, Sr., QB, West Virginia–Might end up as one of the biggest winners in college football history. Dangerous runner who could win the Heisman if he can up his passing stats and lead his team to yet another 11-win season.

4. Stafon Johnson, Jr., RB, USC–The last seven USC tailbacks to top 1,400 rushing yards at some point in their careers have either won the Heisman or finished second in the voting. Johnson looks like he may break out from a crowded running back corps and have that kind of year.

5. Percy Harvin, Jr., WR/RB, Florida–Can do-it-all when healthy. He’ll benefit from Tebow’s exposure and the explosiveness of the Gators offense. If he gets 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving, look out.

6. Colt McCoy, Jr., QB, Texas–If he can regain his freshman year form, he could be a top contender. Has added more rushing yards to his repertoire, but must cut down on his interceptions.

7. Keiland Williams, Jr., RB, LSU–With the LSU quarterback position unsettled, look for the Tigers to lean on Williams in the early going. That could mean a hot start and a chance to emerge as a serious Heisman candidate.

8. Graham Harrell, Sr., QB, Texas Tech–To have a chance at the Heisman, he basically has to break every single-season passing record in existence while leading TTU to the Big 12 title and beyond. If anyone can do it….

9. Matt Stafford, Jr., QB, Georgia–A top pro prospect who has yet to put it together for a whole season. Plays in a system that doesn’t produce big numbers, but could still get attention based on his team’s success.

10. Marlon Lucky, Sr., RB, Nebraska–Once upon a time, the Nebraska I-back was a shoo-in Heisman contender. But Lucky won’t get a single vote unless Nebraska somehow revives under Bo Pelini. If that happens, Lucky will probably be seen as one of the main reasons why. And Heisman voters may take notice.

If USC athletes had competed as a country in 2008, they would have placed 13th in the overall medal standings in the Beijing Games (and tied for eighth in golds).

Texas and Florida each earned 14 medals. Michigan 12.

USC Athletes Win 21 Medals At 2008 Beijing Olympics [USCtrojans.com]

From the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA):

The USC Trojans are the top-ranked team in the Football Writers Association of America's preseason Grantland Rice Super 16 Poll. The Trojans nipped second-ranked Georgia, although both schools picked up five first-place votes. It's the fourth time in five years USC has been picked No. 1 by the FWAA in the preseason.

The only other Pac-10 team in the poll is Arizona State, tied with BYU for 16th. The Big 12 placed five teams in the top 16 and the SEC had four. California and Oregon also received votes.

1. Oklahoma– The Sooners feature the nation’s pass efficiency leader, an excellent group of skill players, the best offensive line in the country and two elite interior defensive tackles.  To me, that’s a good formula for a No. 1 team.

2. Florida– The Gators should have the best offense in the country. If the defense improves–and I think it will–who’s going to beat them?

3. Ohio State– This is Jim Tressel’s best team yet on paper.  If the Buckeyes get by USC early, they should run the table.

4. Georgia– The best team in the country at the end of last season.  If Matt Stafford puts it all together, it could be the best at the end of this season, too.

5. Missouri– While Tim Tebow may be the best player in the country, Chase Daniel isn’t far behind.  This is an explosive team that has a lot of confidence.  The schedule is favorable, as well.

6. Clemson– Are the Tigers finally for real?  Talent abounds at all the key spots, but the offensive line is a question mark.  Tommy Bowden will have to really muck things up for this team not to win the ACC.

7. West Virginia– I think Bill Stewart can keep it going.  Doesn’t hurt to have Pat White and Noel Devine to fall back on.  They could be the most exciting duo in the country.

8. LSU– If the Tigers can find a quarterback, they should be pretty good.  Keiland Williams should emerge as one of the top backs in the country.

9. USC– Supremely talented team with a bunch of question marks at quarterback, receiver and offensive line.  Will get better as season goes on, but early games could be trouble.

10. Oregon– OC Chip Kelly should be able to plug ‘n play enough guys on offense to make up for the loss of Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart.   The secondary is one of the best in the country.

On the cusp: Auburn, Brigham Young, Texas Tech, Alabama, Texas.

You hear it a lot.  Way too much, in fact.

Now, here’s the thing.  The SEC is currently the top conference.  It was amazingly good last year and will be amazingly good this year.

But it is not set in stone that the SEC is the default top conference every year, or at least it shouldn’t be.  Yet, that seems to be the prevailing opinion among the college football media, year-in, year-out.

To refute this notion, I present to you… the data provided by the indispensable CollegeFootballDataWarehouse.

The CFBDW has a ranking of teams and conferences based on (1) Winning Percentage Points (2) Schedule Points (3) National Championship Points and (4) Big 4 Bowl Points.

For the period 2000-2007, the BCS conferences are ranked as follows (total points is the first bit of data, followed left to right by the previously mentioned totals):

As you can see, the SEC is on top in this decade (941 total points), but it’s not a slam dunk.  And, the real reason for the top ranking is due to the SEC having 12 teams to accumulate its points vs. 10 teams for the Pac-10.  The Pac-10 (923 points) gets to No. 2 largely on the strength of its schedule, while the SEC is dragged down somewhat by playing the fourth-toughest schedule among the six major conferences.  Averaging the total points per team per conference, the Pac-10 averages 92.3 and the SEC averages 78.4.

If you look at the top 25 programs for 2000-2007, another interesting piece of data is revealed:

You'd think -- considering Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Virginia all rank in top 15 schools for spending on recruiting athletes in all sports. In 2006-07, Tennessee led the nation at $2 million. The Irish were second at about $1.75 million, the Buckeyes 10th at $1,236,800, and the Cavs 15th at $1,112,000.

With most of the costs going to travel, the median Division 1 program spent $632,600 on sports recruiting in 2006-07. Twenty one schools spent over $1 million. The findings are published in a report from the Chronicle of Higher Education which is dated August 1, 2008.

USC spent $903,799 on recruiting in that same period, of which $268,449 was spent on women's recruiting.

Some other familiar football opponents made the top-20 in spending, including Auburn, Nebraska, Arkansas, Illinois, Texas, and Oklahoma.

Of the six BCS conferences, the Pac-10 spent the 5th most on recruiting, $834,700,000 -- an increase of 80% from ten years before. Oregon led the league at $1,077,300, 19th highest in the country.

By examining the record of a team over their last 9 PAC 10 games, an estimate of how each team would fair in a full PAC 10 schedule can be made. How far back one has to go to find 9 games is given in parenthesis. Examining the number of PAC 10 games in the last five years is a good measure of PAC 10 interest in playing each team. This is amplified if the PAC 10 teams are willing to travel. Bowl records over the last 10 years give a separate measure of performance over quality teams. Home attendance measures the current fan base of each team.

Records are extracted from James Howell’s database. Attendance figures are from the NCAA

Team	Last 9	Games(Home)	Bowl	Attendance
Boise State	3-6 (1998)	5(2)	5-3	30338
BYU	3-6 (2003)	9(3 & 2 Bowls)	2-4	64497
Colorado	3-6 (2000)	5(3)	3-4	50509
Fresno State	3-6 (2002)	8(3)	3-4	36291
Hawaii	4-5 (1998)	4(4)	4-2	43514
Idaho	0-9 (2003)	10(0)	1-0	11497
Nevada	1-8 (1998)	4(1)	1-2	17087
SDSU	0-9 (2001)	7(4)	0-1	27940
San Jose St.	1-9 (2002)	5(2)	1-0	15465
Texas	4-5 (1987)	2(2 Bowls)	7-3	85144
UNLV	2-7 (1983)	0	1-0	29281
Utah	6-3 (2001)	7(4)	7-0	42593

Based on this data it is reasonable to eliminate Idaho, Nevada and UNLV from further consideration. San Jose St. and SDSU will remain based on California politics.

I will mention that Texas and BYU are the only teams on the list with a national championship in football, Texas in 2005-06 over USC in the Rose Bowl. Texas, Colorado, Utah and Boise State are the only teams listed that have been to a BCS Bowl, Texas twice and Utah before the non-BCS bar was lowered.

Texas undeniably has the best name nationally, but to find nine games against PAC 10 teams one must go back to the days of the SWC in 1987. Four of those nine games were Bowl games. The PAC 10 and Texas apparently have little interest in competing directly on the field.

Utah is the only team listed that has a winning record against the PAC 10 over its last nine tries. Utah, SDSU and Hawaii have hosted the most PAC 10 teams. Hawaii benefits from favorable NCAA rules allowing visitors an extra home game. Idaho and BYU have the most games against the PAC 10 in recent years. Fresno State has the most meetings excluding Bowl games. Utah and Hawaii have hosted more Pac 10 teams than the rest. While Boise State has been to more Bowl games that Utah, no team has won more bowl games than Texas and Utah.

Admitting that Boise State has defeated Utah twice over the period in question, Utah is the most competitive team the PAC 10 has on this list, other than Texas. BYU plays more PAC 10 teams competitively, not just for homecoming. BYU has one of the largest stadiums under consideration.

The top 5 attendance figures above are, in order, Texas, BYU, Colorado, Utah and Fresno St.

Utah and BYU are the teams that the PAC 10 has a demonstrated an interest in playing while providing good competition and maintaining the natural rivalry structure of the conference.

Comment on PAC 10 Expansion: Gridiron...

This first part gives an outline of what will lay ahead in this discussion. As each article is posted, this article will be edited to include links to the others.

Many teams are suggested for PAC 10 expansion whenever the topic emerges. For geographic reasons I chose to exclude most teams east of the Rockies. Texas and Colorado are included despite the increases travel costs and that a change would be a lateral transfer from one BCS conference to another. Any rival that might accompany either school has much less of an impact once either of these schools is added, and adding these two teams would weaken the natural rivalry structure of the PAC 10.

This leaves Boise State, BYU, Fresno State, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, SDSU, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah and Utah State. Utah State is omitted because they are never included in the discussion, unless the responses by the MWC or WAC are considered. I include Idaho for the historic connection with the PCC, and as a natural rival for Boise State. UNLV and Nevada are the geographical best fit and deserve some consideration.

The second article will explore the merits of each of these teams on the gridiron. Each team’s last nine games vs. PAC 10 opponents, corresponding to a current full season in the PAC 10, should estimate how a team would fair in the PAC 10. Bowl records over the last 10 years will be given as a second measure of performance against quality teams. The number of games against PAC 10 teams in the last 5 years will give a measure of the desire of the PAC 10 to play each institution, especially if the PAC 10 team travels. Home attendance will also be examined. This will yield a bank of data to allow a quantitative analysis of the quality of the football programs involved.

The third article will look at academic measures, other PAC 10 sports and TV market share. A table will be included with each prospective institution’s Carnegie Foundation Ranking, research funding and enrollment figures. Any sport that all PAC 10 teams field that each school does not will be noted. TV market share can not be ignored as TV money funds nationally competitive athletic programs.

It should come as no surprise to anyone familiar with my background that I conclude that BYU and Utah are the best option for expansion. I have stated as much in the past, now I am presenting facts to back up my opinion.

The forth article will examine scheduling issues caused by the expansion. For this discussion I assume an expansion involving a natural rivalry pair, not necessarily Utah BYU. This is the falling action of the series, and I admit I may be the only one interested in this post.

The length of this introduction demonstrates the need of more than one post.

To be continued

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A few highlights....

Champs Sports Bowl ... Virginia vs. Illinois
Meineke Car Care Bowl ... Florida State vs. Pitt
Texas Bowl ... Colorado vs. Rutgers
PetroSun Independence Bowl ... Nebraska vs. Arkansas
Alamo Bowl ... Michigan State vs. Kansas
Pacific Life Holiday Bowl ... Texas vs. Oregon
Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl ... Wake Forest vs. Alabama
Chick-fil-A Bowl ... Boston College vs. South Carolina
Outback Bowl ... Michigan vs. LSU
Konica Minolta Gator Bowl ... Miami vs. Notre Dame
Capital One Bowl ... Penn State vs. Auburn
AT&T Cotton Bowl ... Oklahoma vs. Tennessee

Rose Bowl presented by Citi ... Wisconsin vs. USC
CFN is basically rubber stamping the winner of USC - Ohio State into the National Championship game. From the outcome of this prediction, I guess CFN is throwing in with the Buckeyes. This one looks dead on to me, unless USC ends up in the championship game, then this one becomes tOSU against the Sun Devils.

Allstate Sugar Bowl ... Georgia vs. Virginia Tech
By putting the Bulldogs into the Sugar, CFN is calling the WLOCP the defacto SEC championship. Take that as you will, Georgia fans. Va Tech looks like the class of the ACC, but CFN pulls them into the Sugar as an at-large. If there's one conference that has proven itself to be way to whacked out to predict, it's the ACC. I think Georgia/Arkansas are safe SEC picks, but give me Clemson from the ACC side.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl ... Missouri vs. West Virginia
The Fiesta gets its traditional first pick of the at-large teams and takes the 'Eers. I'm not sure that Missouri will be the Big XII champs. CFN is hedging, with Texas Tech as their second choice, but... I wouldn't count out the Sooners... ever. I think Oklahoma - West Virginia makes more sense.

FedEx Orange Bowl ... Clemson vs. Texas Tech
If there is one prediction that I think is off the mark, it's CFN's prognostication for the Orange. I would be willing to take the field here at any odds, because I don't see a Tigers - Red Raiders matchup in Miami. I think the Hokies are the most likely candidate here for the ACC, versus an at-large team. For my prediction, give me VaTech (ACC Champs) versus Arizona State (at-large) or maybe even Utah (at-large).

FedEx BCS National Championship ... Ohio State vs. Florida
The Buckeyes and Gators in the National Championship game... where have we seen that before? This one is just as likely to be USC-Florida, which would probably be the highest rated college football game ever. If Florida gets to the BCS title game and wins, I think you will have seen the last of #15 in orange and blue. Just sayin'.

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