So to help break it down, here’s one man’s take on three key developments:

1. Todd McNair, star witness
According to reports, the NCAA’s Committee on Infractions spent the better part of two days grilling Todd McNair, the incumbent USC running backs coach. That’s a clear indicator that the Reggie Bush situation is the centerpiece of the NCAA’s probe. McNair was Bush’s position coach in 2004 and ‘05, so if any school employee knew what Bush and his family were up to, it had to be McNair, who’s like a father figure (or at least a big brother) to his charges. The extent of what he knew is critical to the case, particularly in determining how severely USC should be punished. This was extremely serious stuff, so much so that McNair “lawyered up” for the hearing. It’ll be interesting to see how, if at all, McNair’s involvement affects his future at USC. He technically remains part of the staff, but Lane Kiffin hasn’t finished putting it together, and it’s conceivable he will be “encouraged” to sever all ties to Bush (although Kiffin was part of that staff as well, and he will insist that all staff decisions were made solely for football reasons).

2. Floyd: Friend or foe?
Among Saturday’s star witnesses was former basketball coach Tim Floyd, who appeared on behalf of USC but also to defend himself. Given that he steadfastly has denied the allegations against him and reportedly continued to do so Saturday, one has to wonder if Floyd’s version of events was consistent with the school’s — and if there were discrepancies, how much that will work against USC. Floyd didn’t exactly leave on the best of terms with Mike Garrett, although the two shook hands at the hearing, according to this story. (We can only presume that handshake rivaled Bill Belichick-Eric Mangini I on the awkwardness scale.) Regardless of how the committee viewed Floyd’s testimony, my best guess is that the NCAA won’t penalize the basketball program beyond the self-imposed sanctions already in place. At the time, Garett said they were “consistent with penalties imposed at other NCAA member institutions which have been cited with similar rules infractions.” If they weren’t, someone should be fired.

3. Longest. Hearing. Ever.
The quote of the weekend came from David Price, the NCAA’s vice president of enforcement, who, besides having a cool job title, described the meeting as “my longest in 11 years” of duty. That, plus the ballyhooed seven boxes of documents wheeled out of the conference room, has led to speculation that USC could get hit harder than Garrett and others anticipated. (This New York Times account delves into the more-boxes theory and includes a quote from recruit Seantrel Henderson’s father, who says his son’s decision about a school might, for lack of concrete information, come from the gut.) But given that the investigation took nearly four years, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that the hearing felt that long. It’s obviously a complex case, perhaps one whose outcome hinges on witness testimony. The results might not be revealed for 10 weeks, also an abnormally lengthy period, at which time USC finally will learn its fate. My prediction, for whatever it’s worth: The football program will lose scholarships and will have to vacate victories — including the Jan. 4, 2006, BCS title game — but won’t face a postseason ban.

More USC football posts:

USC vs. the NCAA: What does it all mean? is a post from: USC

In the meantime, here's a refresher course on the most high profile, longest-running college football scandal of the decade:

• The Charges: Documents and numerous sources have connected Bush to more than $300,000 in improper benefits from competing camps attempting to woo one of the nation's biggest stars as a client during his sophomore and junior seasons in 2004-05. Between marketing pro Mike Ornstein (an ex-con for whom Bush interned in 2005) and fledgling partners Michael Michaels and Lloyd Lake (another ex-con), Bush was reportedly funneled airfare, limo rides, clothes, expensive hotel stays, $13,000 to buy a Chevrolet Impala and weekly payments of at least $1,500. There was also the infamous 3,000-square-foot home in Spring Valley, Calif., purchased by Michaels, where Bush's mother and stepfather allegedly lived for a year, amounting to about $54,000 in free rent they promised to repay when Bush turned pro.

Michaels and Lake raised reporters' eyebrows after Bush chose Ornstein as his agent in 2006, evicting Bush's parents from the home and preparing multimillion-dollar lawsuits against Bush for fraud. Michaels eventually settled out of court for $300,000; Lake's case against Bush is still creeping forward through a thicket of appeals and depositions reportedly halted by gun-wielding goons.

The most stinging charge the NCAA can levy against USC itself is "lack of institutional control," which became a very real possibility when investigators reportedly combined the Bush probe with their investigation into former Trojan hoops star O.J. Mayo, whose already-notorious handler was caught so red-handed in alleged cash exchanges with ex-coach Tim Floyd that the school went ahead and preemptively flogged itself with a self-imposed postseason ban in exchange for (they hope) leniency from Big Brother. Combined with the program's unusual openness to celebrities and outsiders of all stripes under Pete Carroll, the longstanding innuendo about its generally cozy relationship with agent-type life forms, the fishy rent arrangement between Bush teammates Matt Leinart and Dwayne Jarrett and its own investigation into a suspicious SUV driven by outgoing tailback Joe McKnight (who forebodingly arrived at SC labeled as "the next Reggie Bush"), it's not hard to come to the conclusion that the athletic department is (or was) something of an open market.

• The Defense: The hitch in the "prosecution," from the NCAA's perspective, has always been less about proving Bush was on the take -- almost no one at this point would even attempt to make that argument with a straight face -- than making the crucial leap from innuendo to proof against the university itself. Both Carroll, as he was leaving the school to take over the head coaching job at Seattle, and new coach Lane Kiffin (Bush's offensive coordinator in 2005) have recently pleaded ignorance; Kiffin, attempting to quell the doubts of top recruit Seantrel Henderson earlier this month, reportedly told Henderson's family the program should be fine "because there was no knowledge of anything going on by the staff." New Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott, who can presumably cite the results of the conference's internal investigation in his sleep, said earlier this week he doesn't expect serious sanctions.

If the NCAA is able to tie the Bush and McKnight cases to the more brazen Mayo hijinks under a single, "lack of control" umbrella, it may not have to charge USC with anything except negligence -- i.e. not knowing that ex-cons are buttering up star players is as bad as ignoring or facilitating it -- to justify a heavy-handed response. If not, the burden is much tougher; as NCAA Executive Director David Price reminded Don Yeager for Yeager's book on the scandal, Tarnished Heisman, the NCAA wasn't able to go after Michigan when it learned former Heisman winner Charles Woodson had accepted money from an agent while playing for the Wolverines because it couldn't prove anything against the program: "We had no information that there was any institutional knowledge; therefore, we did not take any action against the institution or even bring charges."

On that front, the most damning claim against USC is Lake's allegation in Yeager's book that he was in the room with Bush's stepfather as he discussed the sketchy housing arrangement with Carroll over the phone. Other evidence is similarly vague and circumstantial, such as various rumors that coaches and administrators (including Carroll and athletic director Mike Garrett, another former Heisman winner) were tipped off about Bush's arrangements, were well-acquainted with the sleazier elements on the fringes of the program and were often in position to notice Bush and his family spending well above their means. Running backs coach Todd McNair (twice convicted himself on suspicion of breeding dogs for fighting during his NFL career) has been accused of socializing with sketchy characters who wanted access to players and with Bush during at least one of his high-priced hotel stays.

Even if you could prove that kind of chatter, it doesn't amount to much in the way of a smoking gun. So far, there is no firm evidence in any published reports to date that anyone at USC had direct knowledge of improper benefits to any football player, which probably means the NCAA doesn't have it, either.

• The Fallout: Long-held visions of white-gloved men marching out of Heritage Hall with Bush's 2005 Heisman Trophy and/or the 2004 BCS championship trophy are misplaced, not least because the NCAA has no control over either. BCS power brokers or the Downtown Athletic Club of New York may confer later to dole out their own brand of justice, but the worst the NCAA will do in the way of that kind of symbolism is "vacate" wins from the wildly successful 2004-05 seasons -- a popular punishment lately, employed against Oklahoma, Florida State and Alabama in the last four years, but a relatively empty one when it comes to deterrence. If this case is about anything from the NCAA's point of view, it' has to be preventing a dozen more like from breaking out across the country.

As pointed out earlier this week, and the L.A. Times chronicled on Wednesday, significant sanctions -- postseason bans, television bans, aggressive scholarship reductions -- are almost unheard of against Division I-A football programs, Florida States and Central Floridas alike, over the last decade. After 20 years of consistent, meaningful probation against powerhouse programs (outstanding teams from Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Miami, Texas A&M and Washington were all held out of bowl games in the eighties and nineties, to name only a few, and SMU's program was famously disbanded for two years at the height of its success), the heavy hand disappeared almost entirely under late president Myles Brand, who came into office in 2002 with two major teams (Alabama and California) serving bowl bans and oversaw the administration of exactly zero over the next seven years. If the Infractions Committee finds USC guilty of any serious infraction, it could easily look to make an example of the Trojans to rebuff that increasingly soft image. There's no evidence it's prepared to do that.

If they get off scott-free, or with just a token slap on the wrist, well, I'll be getting a lot of infuriated comments about the miscarriage of justice, and the NCAA's credibility as a consistent, potent enforcer of its own regulations -- rightly or wrongly -- will be at an all-time low. That's not a comment on anyone's innocence or guilt; behind closed doors, the actual facts may not warrant a significant punishment. But when a case is allowed to sprawl and flourish for this long as the exemplar of open, arrogant defiance in the eyes of fans and media, anything less than a sledgehammer is inevitably going to be greeted like the O.J. verdict. Even if it wins in front of the NCAA, I don't think there's any way SC can come on top of the PR battle.

"Speaking for the people I served on the committee with, we wouldn't go through the time, effort and sacrifice we go through with this procedure and do it for number of years if there was one sliver of a different set of standards for one institution versus another," Yeager said. "The whole process would fall apart. That's completely out of there. That doesn't happen.

"There are institutions that do a better job with their cases. But if there was any hint of (bias), people would close their books, walk out and never come back."

Cynics will make of that what they will, but the record over the last 10 years backs up Yeager's insistence on consistency: Since 2000, the NCAA has treated practically everyone with a light touch, regardless of size or influence. The last teams to face a television and postseason ban in football -- a staple of major sanctions throughout the '80s and '90s -- were Alabama (a repeat offender) and California in 2003. Over the last five years, the Association's once formidable wrath has amounted to scholarship losses so minor they can often be applied retroactively to less-than-full recruiting classes, or "vacated" wins, a purely symbolic slap on the wrist. (And in Oklahoma's case, one that was later revoked; Alabama is hoping for a similar reversal in its textbook fraud verdict.) Central Florida and Texas Tech -- hardly powerhouses even within their own states -- were treated with kid gloves when the NCAA announced probation ("i.e. don't screw up again") against both schools for various recruiting sins earlier this month. The next program that's significantly affected on the field or in the coffers will be the first in a very long time.

Even if the copious media reports into the Bush case are only half true, the allegations USC will be defending itself against this weekend are more serious than the charges in any other recent case, not least because they cross multiple sports and potentially implicate the entire athletic department -- one of the reasons SC preemptively flogged itself with a self-imposed postseason ban in basketball in response to the pay-for-play allegations against former hoops star O.J. Mayo and since-fired coach Tim Floyd. But if the Trojans get off light -- or even scott-free, as unlikely as that seems following a four-year investigation -- it seems far less likely to be because of any kind of "bias" or profit motive than just another case of general toothlessness.

Reggie Bush just won a Super Bowl ring. He is only the third player ever to win a Super Bowl, a college national championship and a Heisman Trophy. The other two are Marcus Allen (USC/Oakland Raiders) and Tony Dorsett (Pitt/Dallas Cowboys).

But all is not well in the land of Reggie. Saying I was disappointed after reading this article in the local San Diego news is an understatement. Whether it is true or not or whether there is more to the story that we don't know, it doesn't matter. This is something Reggie needs to fix, immediately.

School seniors Brandon Fountain and Matt Cobb were presented a $10,000 scholarship from Bush to use for college. Both ran into problems the following year when trying to contact the scholarship's trustee, Jerry Michaels.

"Mr. Michaels never responded. A couple of weeks later, he (Brandon) sent a second e-mail and still no response," said Fountain's father, Bruce.

"That's when we were told he was out of funds and due to the economy he didn't have the money," said Cobb.

10News contacted Michaels, who lives in Los Angeles. He said the scholarship program was set up years ago and Bush's people contacted him in an effort to get involved. Michaels said Bush's people promised to contribute to the funds but never followed through. The existing scholarship was funded by previous investments in the stock market, and those stocks did not do well.

While Bush posed with them at Helix High and was credited for "giving back" to his former school, Fountain and Cobb were left with an empty promise and a scholarship with Bush's name and without his assistance.

As one of the biggest USC Homers alive, the last thing I ever want to do is to make a villain out of a former Trojan. Especially one that was so dynamic to watch and helped win two national championships. I know that in New Orleans Bush has contributed large amounts of money to children's organizations and is loved in the community. Hopefully this is just an oversight on his part and this unfortunate situation will be fixed.

To read the full article, click here.

Recipients Say NFL Star Bush Fumbled Scholarship Promise [10news]

———————————————————————————————————

Not every recruiting class contains a future Heisman winner.  Here are the last 10 Heisman winners and the classes that produced them:

Chris Weinke (1990*/1997)

Erich Crouch (1997)

Carson Palmer (1998)

Jason White (1999)

Matt Leinart (2001)

Reggie Bush (2003)

Troy Smith (2002)

Tim Tebow (2006)

Sam Bradford (2006)

Mark Ingram (2008)

* — Weinke originally signed with Florida State in 1990 but he embarked on a pro baseball career before returning to the Seminoles in 1997.

Recent classes missing out on Heismans: 2000, 2004, 2005, 2007 (so far).

With signing day in the books, here are the players from the class of 2010 (in no particular order) who I think have the best chance of competing for future Heismans:

Michael Dyer, RB, Auburn–Dyer is a slippery, low-to-the-ground runner who should immediately thrive in Gus Malzahn’s offense.  I predict he will hit the 1,000-yard mark as a freshman (assuming health and qualification) and go on to a stellar career on the Plains.

Lache Seastrunk, RB, Oregon–I thought it was funny that reaction in the recruiting world to Seastrunk going to Oregon was rather muted.  Said one coach to me “He’s going to Oregon–there must be something wrong with him.”  Well, this is a guy who everyone wanted just a few months ago and now all of a sudden schools are poo-pooing him.  I don’t buy it.  This is one amazingly fast back who is perfect for the Chip Kelly scheme.  He should be an instant star.

Mack Brown, RB, Florida–There haven’t been many ultra-productive running backs coming out of Urban Meyer’s offenses of late, but Brown could be the exception.  He’s a nifty north-south runner who should thrive in the wide-open space of Meyer’s attack.

D.J. Morgan, RB, USC–Morgan could possibly redshirt his first season at USC due to an injury suffered his senior season.  But once he gets healthy, he’ll be one of the more exciting players in the country.  A legitimate track star (world junior champ in the high hurdles), he has the speed and moves to take it the distance on every play.

Cameron Newton, QB, Auburn–I was a big fan of Newton’s game when he went to Florida and I’m still high on him as he heads to Auburn.  If he wins the starting job, he’ll throw for a lot of yards and touchdowns for the Tigers and could end up being one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC.

Devin Gardner, QB, Michigan–If Rich Rodriguez is to resurrect Michigan, he may need Gardner to come through sooner rather than later.  Reminiscent of Vince Young and Terrelle Pryor physically and should be a great fit for the Wolverine offense.  If he develops, watch out.

Andrew Hendrix, QB, Notre Dame–Hendrix is an underrated talent, with a very good arm and excellent athleticism.  He could very well be the future for Notre Dame once Dane Crist’s eligibility expires.  He looks like a typical Brian Kelly quarterback to me and that means he’ll be putting up big numbers one day.

Blake Bell, QB, Oklahoma–Bell is a raw talent with a lot of upside.  It looks like he is tailor-made for the Oklahoma offense. Can really move his feet despite his 6-6 height.  Keep an eye on him.

There’s my top Heisman guys from the class of 2010.  It’s not an especially deep class as far as this list goes and it could well be that no Heisman winners emerge from this group.  However, I think these guys I’ve listed have the best chance.

• Mark Sanchez's dream ride through the postseason ended with one of his best all-around performances of his rookie year, as he went 17-for-30 for 257 yards, two touchdowns and just one interception.
• Reggie Bush had two catches for 33 yards and a touchdown in the Saints' 31-28 overtime win over the Minnesota Vikings.
• Defensive lineman Sedrick Ellis had six tackles in the Saints' victory.
• Tailback Chauncey Washington (New York Jets) and defensive lineman Fili Moala (Indianapolis Colts) were not active for the AFC championship game.

A former USC Trojan will play in this years Super Bowl and there will be at least one on each team. Well, kind of... Here are former Trojans that still have a shot at a Super Bowl appearance.

New York Jets: Mark Sanchez and Chauncey Washington
Indianapolis Colts: Fili Moala
New Orleans Saints: Reggie Bush, Sedrick Ellis and Billy Miller (Injured Reserve)
Minnesota Vikings: Offensive lineman Drew Radovich is the "kind of," he is not on the active roster, but on the practice squad.

(Photo of Reggie Bush by Icon Sports Media)

I am rooting for a Jets vs. Saints match up. Nothing would please me more than seeing Sedrick Ellis sack Mark Sanchez.

If you can predict the future and know who will win this weekend or who will win the big game on February 7th, go here to bet on the Super Bowl.