—Can we all agree that Mel Kiper and Todd McShay’s opinions should be taken for entertainment purposes only?  They are showmen.  Very little of what they say in the weeks and months leading up to the draft has any bearing in reality.  The draft is a very tricky thing and no one really knows how it is going to turn out.  What amazes me even more is these guys’ picks for the No. 1 prospect in 2010.  Kiper tabs Eric Berry, while McShay chooses Sam Bradford.  Now, look.  Those two are both excellent prospects and will be first round selections (in Berry’s case, a top five pick).  But a defensive back has never gone No. 1 in the draft and, if it does happen, I think is just as likely to be USC’s Taylor Mays–who has the other-worldly measurables the NFL craves–as Berry.  As for Bradford, I doubt he survives the scrutiny of the combine and evaluation process;  he is likely to be revealed as a system guy to many and the NFL loves to nitpick.  This will likely not prevent him from being a first rounder, but it will prevent him being taken first, in my opinion.

To me, it’s fairly obvious who will be the first player taken in the next draft.  It will be (barring injury) the guy who was the best player on the field in the BCS Title Game:  Sooner defensive tackle Gerald McCoy.

—We hear a lot about how many players don’t fit into NFL schemes because they play in the spread in college.  Well, wouldn’t it behoove the NFL to start playing more spread and get a quicker payout from the talent it drafts?  Oh, right.  Supposedly things like the spread and the, uh, Wildcat, don’t work in the NFL.  Just like the spread couldn’t work in the SEC and Urban Meyer was doomed to fail….hmmmm.

—First-Round Picks I Liked:  Mark Sanchez to the Jets. I think he made the right choice to come out early.  He’ll get $20 million over the next year and be in a major market.  And he’s a talent who will have a pretty decent team to work with, unlike Matt Stafford.   Andre Smith to the Bengals. There was a lot of talk by the usual suspects about how much he was dropping in the draft.  Yup, sure.  This guy is a great player and will do well, mansierre or not.  Michael Crabtree to the 49ers. He’s no J.J. Stokes.  He could become the face of this franchise one day.  Great pickup for the 49ers.  Percy Harvin to Minnesota. Harvin paired with Adrian Peterson will make this team as fun to watch as any in the league.  I might even have to tune in.

—Steal of the Draft:  Chris Wells to Arizona. The knock on him is that he isn’t durable.  But neither were Adrian Peterson or Cadillac Williams (both top 7 picks) when they were in college (and neither has been durable in the NFL).  Wells doesn’t catch the ball, but neither did Peterson or Williams, really.   Now, he’s not Peterson (who is?), but he’s better than Caddy.  He’ll be the featured runner in a boffo offense and he should shine right away.  My early pick for Rookie of the Year.

—The Worst Picks of the 1st round:  Darius Heyward-Bey by the Raiders.  But we all knew this.  He’s a shiney hood ornament for a lousy clunker of a franchise.  Tyson Jackson to the Chiefs. Good player, but not third-pick-of-the-draft good, methinks.  Jeremy Maclin to the Eagles. Seems a bit redundant with DeSean Jackson there already.  Although, he could be a good insurance policy in case MeSean strikes.

—USC has 21 picks the last two years and yet lost (in 2007) to a team (Stanford) that has zero picks that last two years.   The point:  Coaching matters.

We just assume everyone from Virginia Beach is perpetually blazed, so no real shock there. The same website is also reporting that Brian Cushing and Clay Matthews tested positive for steroids. These are demonstrably false, as we’ve heard nothing like this over the past four years, especially regarding Cushing.

Team needs: Quarterback, receiver, cornerback

Dream scenario: The Jets went into the offseason with numerous positional needs to address, and they got around to all but two of them through free agency. The leftovers are biggies: quarterback and receiver.

	Jody Gomez/US Presswire
	The Jets could use help at QB, but will one of the top three prospects, such as former Trojan Mark Sanchez, be available at No. 17?

Brett Favre retired, leaving a three-way competition among Kellen Clemens, Brett Ratliff and Erik Ainge. They have a combined eight NFL starts. Many observers considered receiver an area the Jets needed to improve even before veteran Laveranues Coles negotiated his way off the team.

The Jets hold only six draft picks, the fewest among AFC East teams. Unless they make a trade, their first crack is at No. 17, and they'll have to wait until No. 52 to go again.

If the Jets want to take a quarterback, most draft evaluators insist they'll need to get one of the top three: Georgia's Matthew Stafford, Southern California's Mark Sanchez or Kansas State's Josh Freeman.

There's a significant drop-off after that trio, and there are no guarantees any will be there at No. 17. The Jets might have to swing a deal to elbow ahead in the draft order. Next up is West Virginia's Pat White, who likely will be drafted as a receiver. Nate Davis of Ball State is considered the fourth-best passer, and he still might be available in the third or fourth round.

If the Jets want to go receiver, Texas Tech's Michael Crabtree and Missouri's Jeremy Maclin will be long gone at No. 17. If the Jets can come away with Maryland's Darrius Heyward-Bey or North Carolina's Hakeem Nicks, they will be filling a significant need.

Florida's Percy Harvin also could be available, but what makes him so valuable is his versatility. The Jets might have trouble getting Harvin and Leon Washington on the field at the same time.

Plan B: Another possibility is cornerback. Although the Jets have bolstered their secondary with Lito Sheppard and Donald Strickland, the Jets could snag another for the future. Ohio State's Malcolm Jenkins could slip to them, but probably not. Illinois' Vontae Davis might be a reach at No. 17.

If Louisiana State defensive end Tyson Jackson somehow slides, the Jets should be thrilled. Jackson projects as a stellar 3-4 run-stopper.

Scouts Inc. take: "As the offseason has shown, they're a very defensive-minded, decision-making group right now. But their offensive needs are glaring. They need to find a passing game. They need to find at least one receiver, preferably a No. 1-type guy because Jerricho Cotchery is not a No. 1, but if Sanchez is there, you've got to pounce on him. If he starts to fall, maybe you even make a package to move up and grab him." -- Matt Williamson

Who has final say: General manager Mike Tannenbaum and rookie head coach Rex Ryan will work in concert.

Now On the Clock: San Diego Chargers, March 31.

Previous On the Clock: Chicago Bears. The team-by-team series.

Of the “pre-preseason” top 25s that have been issued in the past couple months, there seems to be a consensus that the Florida Gators, who lose Percy Harvin going into '09 but retain nearly everyone else of note, will once again be the team to beat; Texas and Oklahoma are also expected to return as powerhouses. Below that, though, the selections range from the brave to the downright silly. Among the most inexplicable:

•Tony Barnhart (Atlanta Journal-Constitution) was the first out of the gate, throwing up a top 25 literally the same night as the BCS National Championship Game, and it shows. Barnhart has Alabama in the top five despite the fact that they lose their starting QB (and were less than a week removed from getting punked by Utah), Oklahoma State at #7, Florida State at #12, and Vanderbilt at #25. I realize you're an SEC guy, but jeez, Tony. He also provided an object lesson in the dangers of sticking your neck out too early by putting Pittsburgh at #10 based on “running back LeSean McCoy and seven starters on defense coming back”; McCoy declared for the NFL draft less than a week later.

•Dennis Dodd (CBS Sports) shared Barnhart's optimism for Alabama (#4) and pumped Kansas at #14, saying “any team with quarterback Todd Reesing is capable of anything.” Anything except for winning the Big 12 North, evidently.

•Matt Hayes (The Sporting News) will see your Notre Dame optimism and raise you: He's got the Irish at #11 based on “the confidence QB Jimmy Clausen gained from his play at Hawaii.” Yes, there's nothing like beating up on the nation's 88th-ranked pass-efficiency defense in a bowl game to mold a player into a leader. Hayes also has Ole Miss at #5 and Auburn at #24, which would make him one of exactly four people in the country who think Auburn will be better with Gene Chizik than they were with Tommy Tuberville (and the other three are Gene Chizik, Jay Jacobs, and Jay Gogue).

•Stewart Mandel (SI.com), like Hayes, has Ole Miss at #5, and like Barnhart he gets burned by early personnel assumptions gone wrong: He puts Oklahoma State at #6, explaining that “nearly every key player is back” on the Cowboy offense, but three of OSU's top four receivers left the program for one reason or another within a month of Mandel posting his list. He's also got Florida State at #18.

•Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News) says he updated his list on January 21, which makes one wonder what his original rankings looked like. He's got Florida State at #7 and Oklahoma State at #6, saying he actually dropped the Cowboys because he's “now counting [the Oklahoma game] as a loss for OSU.” The Sooners, last seen piling 61 points on the Cowboys, are grateful for your generosity, sir. Wilner also thinks Pitt and West Virginia will be better without LeSean McCoy and Pat White, respectively — he's got both in his top 25 despite the fact that neither team cracked the final coaches' poll of 2008.

•College Football News is buying into the ACC big-time in '09: They've got North Carolina at #9, Georgia Tech at #11, and Clemson at #15. And based on their color-coding system, CFN thinks Miami “should be worse” than they were last year, yet they've still got the Hurricanes, 7-6 and unranked at the end of 2008, at #19 on their list. Strangely, the one ACC team to get downgraded relative to last season is the defending conference champions — Virginia Tech winds up just one slot ahead of the 'Canes.

•Mark Schlabach (ESPN.com) has also revised an earlier list, but he's still got Alabama at #4 despite openly conceding what huge losses John Parker Wilson and Andre Smith will be; he's also got Notre Dame at #22.

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Doug Gillet is the proprietor of Hey Jenny Slater and a regular contributor to Dr. Saturday.

Forget for a second the general abuse of the 40 as a relevant measure of "football speed," which is more about short bursts and quickness in tight spaces. Despite the glaring absence of the fastest player in the country, Jeffrey Demps, you'll notice four players are listed here as sub-4.3, or faster than any player ran in the entire NFL combine. That includes the only warp-speed Gator to run in Indianapolis, Percy Harvin, whose official, electronically-timed 4.41 tied for the sixth-best effort at the combine but wouldn't have even gotten him on the above board in Gainesville. According to this, Chris Rainey is only barely human, having apparently evolved certain characteristics of a rabbit (in, uh, more ways than one, perhaps).

It's not that I'm not willing to bestow upon the Gators the title of "Fastest Team in America," though I think this is no more (and maybe slightly less) relevant than "Only Team With Tim Tebow at Quarterback." I do not, however, believe they are singlehandedly scorching the rest of the country -- not to mention the pros -- to this ridiculous extent*. Come on, guys.

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* I do believe at least some of them are capable of becoming airborne over short distances, though, so the "Flying 20" times are probably solid.

And that’s why I’ll be switching back and forth between CBS and ABC for the next three hours.

That’s right. The first ever two-game running game diary.

1. Chris Wells, Ohio State–Things are getting tricky when it comes to analyzing Wells’ chance at the Heisman. At this point, there are a ton of variables in play. First off, he is hurt. Second, most of us don’t know how healthy he will be against USC on Saturday. Third, he has gained a slight advantage in that a loss to USC could be seen as the result of his being hurt, thus increasing his perceived worth to his team. Fourth, a win over USC with Wells making a minimal contribution could hurt his perceived worth to his team (they still won even though he was hurt? He must not be that important). Fifth, he could potentially have a Willis Reed type of moment, gutting out a winning touchdown, for instance, while not necessarily performing well in the overall game due to being hobbled. Thus a premium would be placed on his guttiness in the clutch. Last, he could just end up being a complete non-factor, but I think he now has a built in excuse and so won’t be dramatically penalized by the voters for it. So, you see all the ways to look at it? The fact that there are so many possibilities is a testament to the high stakes of the game this Saturday vs. USC. Unless Wells and Ohio State have a total meltdown, I believe he is unlikely to be eliminated from the race by virtue of his injury.

That’s because after USC, the Buckeyes will move on to the Big Ten schedule and, assuming he is healthy, Beanie will pile up a ton of yardage. Even if he has a rough game against the Trojans, he is likely to come back and put up 1,700-plus yards, which would at least make him a legitimate candidate, especially if the Buckeyes are undefeated or headed for the BCS title game once again.

Last week: Injured. Season: 13 carries, 111 yards, 8.5 ypc, 1 TD

2. Chase Daniel, Missouri–Daniel is moving closer to taking the lead in the Heisman Watch. He’s been exemplary so far and the Tigers have played well. What more can you ask for? If Wells stumbles against USC, he’ll be the front runner for the Heisman.

Then, all he has to do is keep winning. No small task.

Last week: 16 of 17, 245 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int. Season: 42 of 62, 568 yards, 6 TDs, 1 int., 9 carries, 46 yards

3. Mark Sanchez, USC–Sanchez is a shaky No. 3 right now. Let’s face it, he’s had one game. But the Ohio State game is such a high-profile affair, he is in a unique situation to capitalize. After Saturday, he could be out of the race, or sitting at the top.

Just a couple of the benefits/pitfalls to being the quarterback for the No. 1 team.

Last week: Off Season: 26 of 35, 338 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int.

4. Colt McCoy, Texas–McCoy is quietly off to a nice start for the Longhorns, but he will stay a few slots back in the race until the Oklahoma and Missouri games play out. Those two games could go a long way in determining this year’s winner.

Last week: 20 of 29, 282 yards, 4 TDs, 1 int Season: 44 of 58, 504 yards, 7 TDs, 1 int, 17 carries, 108 yards, 1 TD

5. Matt Stafford, Georgia–Stafford looks to be maturing as a quarterback and is off to his best start yet. There will be no shortage of big games for him to show his stuff. For now, he’s a candidate as long as UGA is undefeated.

Last week: 18 of 28, 213 yards, 2 TDs, 0 ints. Season: 31 of 49, 488 yards, 4 TDs, 0 ints.

6. Percy Harvin, Florida–Harvin came back against Miami, but didn’t set the world on fire. He’s got one more week to show his stuff, or else the clock will run out on his Heisman hopes.

Last week/Season: 5 carries, 27 yards, 1 TD, 1 catch, 12 yards

7. Stafon Johnson, USC–Johnson had minimal impact against Virginia, but he’s got this big game against Ohio State to do his thing. While USC seems determined to make all its tailbacks happy, it will go with the hot hand when necessary. If Johnson does not break out against OSU, he’s off this list for good.

Last week: Off Season: 9 carries, 28 yards, 1 TD

8. Pat White, West Virginia–White is hanging by a thread in the race after his WVU team lost to East Carolina, 24-3. He was shut down for the most part and it looks like WVU is really missing Coach Rod. Unless the Mountaineers run the table the rest of the way, White won’t have a shot.

Last week: 11 of 18, 72 yards, 0 TDs, 0 ints, 97 yards on 20 carries. Season: 36 of 51 for 280 yards, 5 TDs, 1 int., 29 carries, 160 yards, 0 TDs.

Dropped Out: Graham Harrell–For Harrell to have a shot at winning, he had to break NCAA records for yards and TDs in a season. With just 3 TDs in two games, that looks unlikely right now.

If the Vote were Held Today

1. Tim Tebow

2. Chase Daniel

3. Chris Wells

4. Knowshon Moreno

5. Mark Sanchez

6. Pat White

7. Graham Harrell

8. Jahvid Best

9. Matt Stafford

10. Percy Harvin

1.  Chris Wells, Ohio State–Wells holds on to the top spot this week, as we’re taking his word that his foot is going to be okay.  He most likely will miss the Ohio game this weekend, but that shouldn’t affect his Heisman chances too much, as there is a precedent for Heisman winners missing early-season games (namely Charles White and Bo Jackson).  It will, however, increase the stakes for the huge matchup the following Saturday at No. 1 USC.  He must do well (100+ yards) in a Buckeye win, or go crazy (180+ yards) in a close Buckeye loss, to solidify his status as the Heisman frontrunner.

Last week:    13 carries, 111 yards, 8.5 ypc, 1 TD against Youngstown State

2. Chase Daniel, Missouri–Daniel got off to a great start to his season with a nice performance in an exciting win over a ranked Illinois squad.   It’s pretty clear that Daniel is going to have the numbers needed to win the Heisman, barring injury.  If he can lead his team to the Big 12 title, then he should finish no worse than second and could even win the trophy.  The next three weeks Mizzou plays three cupcakes, so Daniel can pad his stats before a potentially high-profile game against Nebraska on Oct 4.

Last week:  26 of 45 for 323 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int against No. 20 Illinois

3. Pat White, West Virginia–I wrote in my Heisman Preview that White would need to step it up in the passing game to make a serious Heisman run and he did just that in week one.  By season’s end, no one will remember that his 5 TD passes came against lowly Villanova–they will just be part of his statistical total.   He is already 1/4 of the way to having 20 TD passes on the season, which should impress voters who think he is just a glorified running back.  White got a bit of a gift this weekend when WVU’s next opponent, East Carolina, beat Virginia Tech.  He can now showcase his abilities in a game that some people might actually care about, before getting a chance to hog the spotlight on Sept. 18 (Thursday night) at Colorado.

Last week: 25 of 33 for 208 yards, 5 TDs, 0 ints against Villanova

4.  Mark Sanchez, USC–It seems exruciatingly early to already be touting a USC quarterback for the Heisman, but there it is.  Sanchez benefitted, believe it or not, from the attention created by his dislocated knee cap in the weeks prior to USC’s game against Virginia.  Suddenly, he became the subject of increased speculation, which made him more of a known quantity.  He was able to reward that speculation and attention with an outstanding game against the Cavaliers.  He is a potential boom-bust candidate.  As long as USC is doing well and he is doing well, he’s going to hover near the top of this list.  But, should his team falter, he will bear the brunt of the blame.  The Ohio State game will determine his Heisman future.  Should he do well in a USC win, then he will zoom into the top two or three and become one of the main contenders.  If the Trojans lose, then he can start working on his resume for a run at the Heisman in 2009.

Last week: 26 of 35, 338 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int against Virginia

5. Colt McCoy, Texas–Don’t look now, but McCoy looks to be back and better than ever.  What has largely gone unnoticed over the past year is how effective a runner the Texas QB has become.  For now, he will be helped by the fact that Texas is below the radar, as he can perform without too much pressure until the matchup with Oklahoma on Oct. 11.  By then, McCoy could be on his way to a remarkable season and people will just be starting to realize it.  If McCoy can help slay OU and Mizzou in back-to-back weeks, he’ll have as good a case for the Heisman as anyone in this race.

Last week:  24 of 29, 222 yards, 3 TDs, 0 Ints, 12 carries, 103 yards, 1 TD against FAU.

6. Matt Stafford, Georgia–Is Stafford finally ready to break out as a passer?  Will Mark Richt let him put up the numbers he needs to compete for the Heisman?  Looks like it so far.  But Stafford won’t have a chance to break into the top five of this list until he survives the gauntlet of South Carolina, Arizona State and Alabama that begins in a couple weeks.

Last week: 13 of 21, 275 yards, 2 TDs, 0 Ints against Georgia Southern.

7.  Percy Harvin, Florida–Harvin is hanging on a bit in this race.  He missed the Gators’ first game against Hawaii and is slated to play against Miami this Saturday.  But how healthy is he, really?  We won’t know until we see him play.  One thing is for sure:  He probably needs to explode against Miami to get back in the thick of the Heisman hunt.  A lackluster game, or another DNP could mean his chances for the Heisman have gone bye bye.

Last Week:  DNP

8. Stafon Johnson, USC–Johnson is the most likely USC back to gain the yards needed to challenge for the Heisman.  However, it seems apparent that USC is sticking with its tailback by committee approach.  Unless Johnson can get untracked in a big way against Ohio State, he’ll drop from this list.

Last week:  9 carries, 28 yards, 1 TD against Virginia

9. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech–Harrell had his typical day against Eastern Washington.  But until people stop yawning at his 500-yard passing games, he’s just a fringe candidate waiting for an opportunity.

Last week:  43 of 58, 536 yards, 2 TDs, 1 int

* * *

If the vote were held today

1. Tim Tebow

2. Chase Daniel

3. Pat White

4. Chris Wells

5. Mark Sanchez

6. Knowshon Moreno

7. Graham Harrell

8. James Laurinaitis

9. Colt McCoy

10. Sam Bradford

Unlike a lot of Heisman watches, my preseason list is intended to determine which players have the best chance of actually winning the trophy at season’s end. If a player does not have a realistic shot at winning the Heisman, he is not on this list.

Therefore, the following ranking is NOT a prediction of the eventual order of the voting (so calm down Gator fans), but a gauge of the strengths of each of the top candidates based on The Ten Heismandments. Other players who are not on this list will get votes and finish high in the race but won’t win.  I will put out top 10 updates predicting the order of the vote from time to time, but this is not one of those times.

I can say with extreme confidence that the Heisman winner will come from the following group of players. THESE ARE THE GUYS WITH THE BEST CHANCE! Here we go:

1. Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells, Jr., RB., Ohio State–A perfect candidate. A top talent from a traditional power that will compete for a national title. Has the schedule and the name recognition to run away with this. His stiff arm could be more famous than the trophy’s by season’s end.

2. Chase Daniel, Sr., QB, Missouri–Outside of Tim Tebow, he’s the top returning vote getter from last season. Well-known quarterback playing in an exciting offense and an emerging program. Will put up big numbers once again and could win the Heisman if the Tigers make a serious title run.

3. Patrick White, Sr., QB, West Virginia–Might end up as one of the biggest winners in college football history. Dangerous runner who could win the Heisman if he can up his passing stats and lead his team to yet another 11-win season.

4. Stafon Johnson, Jr., RB, USC–The last seven USC tailbacks to top 1,400 rushing yards at some point in their careers have either won the Heisman or finished second in the voting. Johnson looks like he may break out from a crowded running back corps and have that kind of year.

5. Percy Harvin, Jr., WR/RB, Florida–Can do-it-all when healthy. He’ll benefit from Tebow’s exposure and the explosiveness of the Gators offense. If he gets 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving, look out.

6. Colt McCoy, Jr., QB, Texas–If he can regain his freshman year form, he could be a top contender. Has added more rushing yards to his repertoire, but must cut down on his interceptions.

7. Keiland Williams, Jr., RB, LSU–With the LSU quarterback position unsettled, look for the Tigers to lean on Williams in the early going. That could mean a hot start and a chance to emerge as a serious Heisman candidate.

8. Graham Harrell, Sr., QB, Texas Tech–To have a chance at the Heisman, he basically has to break every single-season passing record in existence while leading TTU to the Big 12 title and beyond. If anyone can do it….

9. Matt Stafford, Jr., QB, Georgia–A top pro prospect who has yet to put it together for a whole season. Plays in a system that doesn’t produce big numbers, but could still get attention based on his team’s success.

10. Marlon Lucky, Sr., RB, Nebraska–Once upon a time, the Nebraska I-back was a shoo-in Heisman contender. But Lucky won’t get a single vote unless Nebraska somehow revives under Bo Pelini. If that happens, Lucky will probably be seen as one of the main reasons why. And Heisman voters may take notice.

A topic of great debate for the last 11 months among the Scout.com recruiting team was who is the top wide receiver in the country? Is it Vidal Hazelton (Chatham, Va.) or Percy Harvin (Landstown, Va.)? The nod is final now and it goes to Hazelton. In all fairness to Harvin they are just different players who bring something completely different to the table for Southern Cal and Florida respectively. Hazelton is bigger and more of a pure receiver at this stage while Harvin is a player that's just great in space with his speed and quickness.

We can't help but agree and add that the name Vidal sounds a lot more promising than a sissy name like Percy.

Scout.com National Hot 100 College Football Recruits [The Sports Network]

Over the weekend, USC did manage to pick up a commit from four-star defensive end Alex Parsons (from Irvine, CA).