Following up on this weekend's commentary about USC's (non-existent) hopes of playing for the BCS Championship game, I hacked into the BCS computers and calculated all the possible outcomes.

Assuming the Trojans run the table, they have less than a one-quarter-of-one-percent-chance of making the BCS Championship Game. And that's before weighing in obvious things that Vegas would consider. If you think Texas Tech will beat Baylor (hint: it will), the hope gets much slimmer. But, hey, maybe the Citadel can beat Florida. In 2080.

The BCS rankings came out yesterday and they're identical to last week, at least at the top:

1. Alabama (11-0)
2. Texas Tech (10-0)
3. Texas (10-1)
4. Florida (9-1)
5. Oklahoma (9-1)
6. USC (9-1)

What boxes out the Trojans is that the five teams ahead of them all play in the same two leagues and have a conference championship game. Even though they might beat up on each other in the home stretch, at least two should to wind up with a "prettier" finish than USC. If I've done my math right (you're welcome to check), there are 11 games or potential games that are out of USC's control resulting in 2,048 scenarios. Of those, a whopping six could get USC into the BCS title game, with the Trojans jumping a mountain of two-loss teams. Again, this assumes Trojan victories over Notre Dame and UCLA.

If you hit any of these parlays in Vegas, drinks are on you. For the rest of your life.

SCENARIO 1: SEC swamps itself, a.k.a. USC's best hope

• Florida loses to the Citadel and/or Florida State.
• Florida beats Alabama.
• Note: Even if Alabama loses to Auburn, it will be a one-loss SEC Champ if it beats Florida -- so it would probably go ahead of USC on "style points."
• FINAL RECORDS: SEC champ Florida (10-3 or 11-2), Alabama (12-1 or 11-2 depending on Auburn game).

SCENARIO 2: Big chaos in the Big 12, Spread Option 1

• Texas loses to Texas A&M.
• Texas Tech beats Oklahoma.
• Texas Tech loses to Baylor.
• Texas Tech loses to Missouri in the conference championship.
• FINAL RECORDS: Big-12 champ Mizzou (11-2 or 10-3 depending on Kansas game), Texas (10-2), Texas Tech (11-2), Oklahoma (10-2 or 9-3 depending on Oklahoma State game).

SCENARIO 3: Big chaos in the Big 12, Spread Option 2

• Texas loses to Texas A&M.
• Oklahoma beats Texas Tech.
• Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State.
• Texas Tech loses to Baylor.
• Oklahoma loses to Missouri in the conference championship.
• FINAL RECORDS: Big-12 champ Mizzou (11-2 or 10-3 depending on Kansas game), Texas (10-2), Oklahoma (10-2), Texas Tech (10-2).

SCENARIO 4: Big chaos in the Big 12, Spread Option 3

• Texas beats Texas A&M
• Oklahoma beats Texas Tech
• Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State
• Texas Tech loses to Baylor
• Texas loses to Missouri in the conference championship
• FINAL RECORDS: Big-12 champ Mizzou (11-2 or 10-3 depending on Kansas game), Texas (11-2), Texas Tech (10-2), Oklahoma (10-2).

SCENARIO 5: Ultimate chaos in the Big 12 and world at large

• Texas loses to Texas A&M.
• Oklahoma beats Texas Tech.
• Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State.
• Texas Tech loses to Baylor.
• Conference championship is between Mizzou and another 2-loss team, leaving the winner totally irrelevant. 
• FINAL RECORDS: It doesn't really matter. The world would be over, anyway. Dogs and cats, living together ... it would just be frightening.

Gasp. I need oxygen like LenDale White after a 10-yard pickup.

All five of these scenarios are unlikely, but there's another one that stands a reasonable chance. It could break the BCS machine for good. All true Americans, including Barack Obama, are rooting for this to happen:

• Oklahoma beats Texas Tech.
• Texas Tech beats Baylor.
• Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State.
• Texas beats Texas A&M.
• Mizzou beats the Big 12 South rep, which would be Texas, Texas Tech or Oklahoma, depending on who has the highest BCS ranking.
• FINAL RECORDS: Big 12 champ Mizzou is 11-2 or 10-3 depending on the Kansas game. One of the three other teams is 11-2. Two of the other teams are 11-1.

Then what? You can't pick a two-loss champ (Mizzou) over a one-loss champ (USC), right? But how do you ignore two one-loss teams that were left out of their conference championship but finished with a better record than the two teams that played in it? They would have the same record as the Trojans (assuming those Notre Dame and UCLA victories) and would have played stiffer competition.

Maybe if this happens, somebody will get physical with the BCS organizers.

-- Adam Rose

POSTSCRIPT (because I don't know how to make a sidebar)

I wasn't kidding -- if you want to check my math on the number of scenarios, I counted 11 games (including potential matchups) with two possible outcomes each. Raise 2 to the 11th power on your trusty scientific calculator (we all carry those around, right?) and you get 2,048. Here are the games:

Oklahoma-Texas Tech
Oklahoma-Oklahoma State
Texas Tech-Baylor
Texas-Texas A&M
Mizzou-Texas or Mizzou-Texas Tech or Mizzou-Oklahoma
Florida-Alabama
Alabama-Auburn
Florida-Citadel
Florida-Florida State

If you're a math wiz, let me know if I over-weighted the three Big 12 championship game possibilities or Florida's remaining regular season games.

According to the Wynn Sportsbook in Las Vegas, USC would be favored in a BCS title game against anyone.

• USC vs Alabama (+11.0)
• USC vs Texas (+5.5)
• USC vs Texas Tech (+4.5)
• USC vs Oklahoma (+2.5)
• USC vs Florida (+1.5)

That's not media hype. It's real money predicting the most likely outcomes.

Red-hot Gators focused on the task at hand [ESPN via Ted Miller]

The Pac-10 blog has often called USC the most-talented team in the nation.

While something like that can't be measured and proclaimed a fact like, say, 2 + 2 = 4 is a fact, most folks without an agenda recognize that as a reasonably true statement.

Some know it to be reasonable true but deny it because they have an agenda. Others make fuzzy arguments and use hackneyed terms like "overrated."

We've also noted that USC would be favored against any other team.

That bothers many folks.

The Pac-10 blog seeks not to bother.

It merely seeks that which is reasonably true amid a maelstrom of regional emotions that are insufficiently governed by a BCS system that often confounds that quest.

So... this from Chris Fowler's column should help everyone who's been confused and bothered by the Pac-10 blog's quest for truth.

Fowler checked in the Wynn sports book in Las Vegas. Here's what he found:

While we're on the topic, here are some of their other thoughts on potential matchups for the BCS title game in Miami:

• Alabama would be an underdog against any of the Big 12 teams it could face. Texas Tech or Texas would be rated about a touchdown favorite and Oklahoma would be favored by 8½. USC would be an 11-point pick over the Tide in by far the most lopsided (on paper) potential title game.
• The Trojans, in fact, would be favored over all potential BCS opponents. OU would be a 2½-point underdog to USC, Texas Tech a 4-point dog, and Texas 5½ points. One of the most evenly matched title games would be USC and Florida, with the Gators a 1½-point underdog.

This doesn't mean that USC should, necessarily, be rated ahead of any other one-loss team questing for inclusion in the BCS title chase.

It merely means that folks who insist that USC shouldn't be included in the discussion are not taking a reasonably true position.

The top 10 BCS standings:
1. Texas 7-0
2. Alabama 7-0
3. Penn State 8-0
4. Oklahoma 6-1
5. USC 5-1
6. Oklahoma State 7-0
7. Georgia 6-1
8. Texas Tech 7-0
9. Ohio State 7-1
10. Florida 5-1

Yes, the Trojans have lost a game and lost ground. But no other one-loss team ranks higher in the coaches’ and Harris Interactive polls, the two that factor into the BCS rankings. USC also has fewer teams to hurdle after a weekend full of upsets.

USC landed at No. 7 in the first Harris poll, released Sunday (see below). The top six are unbeaten Oklahoma, LSU, Alabama, Missouri, Texas and Penn State. Would-be title contenders Georgia and Florida are 10th and 11th, respectively, after stumbling at home Saturday.

The Trojans fell from first to ninth in the coaches’ poll, with BYU and Texas Tech also sneaking ahead of them. Georgia dropped from third to 10th, Florida from fourth to 13th.

USC’s next opponent, Oregon, jumped from 22nd to 20th in the coaches’ poll after destroying Washington State, 63-14. The Ducks are 21st in the Harris poll. They are the only other Pac-10 school in either Top 25.

The first BCS standings, which also use the average of six computer rankings, come out Oct. 19.

Harris Interactive Poll: harrispoll092808

Related link:

• Mark Sanchez: ‘We’re still in good shape’

If you happened to be in a media coma since Saturday, check out the 35-3, USC v. Ohio State highlights above - complete with Mark Sanchez' post-game interview. And don't even think that this slaughter means you've seen all the Trojans have to offer, because according to self-critical Sanchez, USC has some more left in the tank :

"We weren't 100% tonight. I don't think we fired on all cylinders. There's a couple of plays I want back. But the score looks great and we'll take it away."

With Saturday's loss USC has further cemented its stronghold in the AP #1 position, followed by #2 Oklahoma and #3 Georgia...while Ohio State can be found all the way down at unlucky #13. Oregon is the only other Pac-10 survivor remaining in the AP-25, holding on strong at #17.

The Trojans, meanwhile, have the luxury of simulating Ohio State's golden child recruit with their own golden child recruit:

USC tailback Joe McKnight played quarterback on the scout team Tuesday to emulate Ohio State freshman Terrelle Pryor, but not just because Pryor is fast.

When Pryor played in high school, he sometimes had issues with fumbles, so the Trojans' defense tried to knock the ball loose from McKnight,who has had his own fumbling issues at USC.
[...]
"We know [Pryor] is going to play," Carroll said. "They're trying to get him ready. They're not going to back off."

Actually, if OSU's been holding back on offense, who knows what it's going to pull out of the bag. It's a lock Pryor will play (29 snaps in the first two games), but put me in the camp that thinks if Ohio State needs Pryor to make a difference, it's probably in more trouble than a freshman who's not Herschel Walker or Adrian Peterson can get the Buckeyes out of.

• Wait, aren't you the guys we should never trust, ever? The San Jose Mercury News' Jon Wilner shows the benefit of being around a beat a while: you start to recognize names. And when Wilner heard the defenders of the controversial Jake Locker unsportsmanlike call in Washington's loss to BYU were Dave Cutaia and Larry Farina, it triggered a couple memories:

The biggest problem, not only with what happened in Husky Stadium but also with the response from [Pac-10 offices], is credibility.

The men involved have zero:

The game referee, Farina, was in charge of the worst-officiated Pac-10 game of the ‘07 season: Oregon State-Washington, in which the officials lost control, fights broke out, players were ejected and Yvenson Bernard’s knee was clearly, obviously down before he fumbled at the goalline.

Everyone saw it, and yet Farina and his gang missed it -- missed it so badly they were banned from working any bowl games in 2007.

And then there’s Cutaia, the Pac-10’s coordinator of officials who defended the Locker call. He was only the lead ref for the Oregon-Oklahoma game.

Cutaia and his crew bungled that game like no game has ever been bungled -- so badly the Pac-10 apologized to Oklahoma and Cutaia was suspended for a game by the league.
- - -
Emphasis in original; OSU/U-Dub link added.

Pac Ten coaches weighed in on the call, and they agree with you (most of you): it was a stupid call. Pete Carroll says it on video here.

• . Texas' game with Arkansas will be postponed until Sept. 27th as Hurricane Ike bears down on the Lonestar coast. Austin is too far inland to be rocked on a hurricane scale, but it's going to be getting mighty wet around here Saturday night, I tell you what -- although for Arkansas, if the Hogs are really thinking, the slop might be the only hope.

But LSU, which had been eyeing Ike warily its own self, will kick off as expected in Tiger Stadium at 7 p.m., which will only feel like a hurricane for North Texas.

Quickly . . .

Displaced Trojan Carson Palmer can't find a bet on Saturday's game. . . . Maybe Alabama's offense will be back on track with Andre Smith back in the lineup against Western Kentucky. . . . Stephen Garcia could be in South Carolina's quarterback mix against Georgia, or, you know, could not be. Nobody at USC practice is telling. . . . Kansas is lining up a redshirt freshman, Jeff Spikes, across from South Florida all-American George Selvie. . . . Nebraska's Lydon Murtha will start for the first time this season against New Mexico State, off a nasty "leg infection." . . . Suspended Maurice Evans and Abe Koroma are still in limbo for Penn State's game Saturday with, eh, Syracuse. . . . UCLA still has no idea what the rest of the script has in store for Kevin Craft. . . . And outlets in Oklahoma and Colorado are remembering Eddie Crowder, ex-Sooner quarterback and Colorado coach/athletic director, who died Tuesday of complications from leukemia.

>i>- - -
Photo of Joe McKnight via Getty Images; Photo of Eddie Crowder via the Boulder Daily Camera.

1. Chris Wells, Ohio State–Things are getting tricky when it comes to analyzing Wells’ chance at the Heisman. At this point, there are a ton of variables in play. First off, he is hurt. Second, most of us don’t know how healthy he will be against USC on Saturday. Third, he has gained a slight advantage in that a loss to USC could be seen as the result of his being hurt, thus increasing his perceived worth to his team. Fourth, a win over USC with Wells making a minimal contribution could hurt his perceived worth to his team (they still won even though he was hurt? He must not be that important). Fifth, he could potentially have a Willis Reed type of moment, gutting out a winning touchdown, for instance, while not necessarily performing well in the overall game due to being hobbled. Thus a premium would be placed on his guttiness in the clutch. Last, he could just end up being a complete non-factor, but I think he now has a built in excuse and so won’t be dramatically penalized by the voters for it. So, you see all the ways to look at it? The fact that there are so many possibilities is a testament to the high stakes of the game this Saturday vs. USC. Unless Wells and Ohio State have a total meltdown, I believe he is unlikely to be eliminated from the race by virtue of his injury.

That’s because after USC, the Buckeyes will move on to the Big Ten schedule and, assuming he is healthy, Beanie will pile up a ton of yardage. Even if he has a rough game against the Trojans, he is likely to come back and put up 1,700-plus yards, which would at least make him a legitimate candidate, especially if the Buckeyes are undefeated or headed for the BCS title game once again.

Last week: Injured. Season: 13 carries, 111 yards, 8.5 ypc, 1 TD

2. Chase Daniel, Missouri–Daniel is moving closer to taking the lead in the Heisman Watch. He’s been exemplary so far and the Tigers have played well. What more can you ask for? If Wells stumbles against USC, he’ll be the front runner for the Heisman.

Then, all he has to do is keep winning. No small task.

Last week: 16 of 17, 245 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int. Season: 42 of 62, 568 yards, 6 TDs, 1 int., 9 carries, 46 yards

3. Mark Sanchez, USC–Sanchez is a shaky No. 3 right now. Let’s face it, he’s had one game. But the Ohio State game is such a high-profile affair, he is in a unique situation to capitalize. After Saturday, he could be out of the race, or sitting at the top.

Just a couple of the benefits/pitfalls to being the quarterback for the No. 1 team.

Last week: Off Season: 26 of 35, 338 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int.

4. Colt McCoy, Texas–McCoy is quietly off to a nice start for the Longhorns, but he will stay a few slots back in the race until the Oklahoma and Missouri games play out. Those two games could go a long way in determining this year’s winner.

Last week: 20 of 29, 282 yards, 4 TDs, 1 int Season: 44 of 58, 504 yards, 7 TDs, 1 int, 17 carries, 108 yards, 1 TD

5. Matt Stafford, Georgia–Stafford looks to be maturing as a quarterback and is off to his best start yet. There will be no shortage of big games for him to show his stuff. For now, he’s a candidate as long as UGA is undefeated.

Last week: 18 of 28, 213 yards, 2 TDs, 0 ints. Season: 31 of 49, 488 yards, 4 TDs, 0 ints.

6. Percy Harvin, Florida–Harvin came back against Miami, but didn’t set the world on fire. He’s got one more week to show his stuff, or else the clock will run out on his Heisman hopes.

Last week/Season: 5 carries, 27 yards, 1 TD, 1 catch, 12 yards

7. Stafon Johnson, USC–Johnson had minimal impact against Virginia, but he’s got this big game against Ohio State to do his thing. While USC seems determined to make all its tailbacks happy, it will go with the hot hand when necessary. If Johnson does not break out against OSU, he’s off this list for good.

Last week: Off Season: 9 carries, 28 yards, 1 TD

8. Pat White, West Virginia–White is hanging by a thread in the race after his WVU team lost to East Carolina, 24-3. He was shut down for the most part and it looks like WVU is really missing Coach Rod. Unless the Mountaineers run the table the rest of the way, White won’t have a shot.

Last week: 11 of 18, 72 yards, 0 TDs, 0 ints, 97 yards on 20 carries. Season: 36 of 51 for 280 yards, 5 TDs, 1 int., 29 carries, 160 yards, 0 TDs.

Dropped Out: Graham Harrell–For Harrell to have a shot at winning, he had to break NCAA records for yards and TDs in a season. With just 3 TDs in two games, that looks unlikely right now.

If the Vote were Held Today

1. Tim Tebow

2. Chase Daniel

3. Chris Wells

4. Knowshon Moreno

5. Mark Sanchez

6. Pat White

7. Graham Harrell

8. Jahvid Best

9. Matt Stafford

10. Percy Harvin

1.  Chris Wells, Ohio State–Wells holds on to the top spot this week, as we’re taking his word that his foot is going to be okay.  He most likely will miss the Ohio game this weekend, but that shouldn’t affect his Heisman chances too much, as there is a precedent for Heisman winners missing early-season games (namely Charles White and Bo Jackson).  It will, however, increase the stakes for the huge matchup the following Saturday at No. 1 USC.  He must do well (100+ yards) in a Buckeye win, or go crazy (180+ yards) in a close Buckeye loss, to solidify his status as the Heisman frontrunner.

Last week:    13 carries, 111 yards, 8.5 ypc, 1 TD against Youngstown State

2. Chase Daniel, Missouri–Daniel got off to a great start to his season with a nice performance in an exciting win over a ranked Illinois squad.   It’s pretty clear that Daniel is going to have the numbers needed to win the Heisman, barring injury.  If he can lead his team to the Big 12 title, then he should finish no worse than second and could even win the trophy.  The next three weeks Mizzou plays three cupcakes, so Daniel can pad his stats before a potentially high-profile game against Nebraska on Oct 4.

Last week:  26 of 45 for 323 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int against No. 20 Illinois

3. Pat White, West Virginia–I wrote in my Heisman Preview that White would need to step it up in the passing game to make a serious Heisman run and he did just that in week one.  By season’s end, no one will remember that his 5 TD passes came against lowly Villanova–they will just be part of his statistical total.   He is already 1/4 of the way to having 20 TD passes on the season, which should impress voters who think he is just a glorified running back.  White got a bit of a gift this weekend when WVU’s next opponent, East Carolina, beat Virginia Tech.  He can now showcase his abilities in a game that some people might actually care about, before getting a chance to hog the spotlight on Sept. 18 (Thursday night) at Colorado.

Last week: 25 of 33 for 208 yards, 5 TDs, 0 ints against Villanova

4.  Mark Sanchez, USC–It seems exruciatingly early to already be touting a USC quarterback for the Heisman, but there it is.  Sanchez benefitted, believe it or not, from the attention created by his dislocated knee cap in the weeks prior to USC’s game against Virginia.  Suddenly, he became the subject of increased speculation, which made him more of a known quantity.  He was able to reward that speculation and attention with an outstanding game against the Cavaliers.  He is a potential boom-bust candidate.  As long as USC is doing well and he is doing well, he’s going to hover near the top of this list.  But, should his team falter, he will bear the brunt of the blame.  The Ohio State game will determine his Heisman future.  Should he do well in a USC win, then he will zoom into the top two or three and become one of the main contenders.  If the Trojans lose, then he can start working on his resume for a run at the Heisman in 2009.

Last week: 26 of 35, 338 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int against Virginia

5. Colt McCoy, Texas–Don’t look now, but McCoy looks to be back and better than ever.  What has largely gone unnoticed over the past year is how effective a runner the Texas QB has become.  For now, he will be helped by the fact that Texas is below the radar, as he can perform without too much pressure until the matchup with Oklahoma on Oct. 11.  By then, McCoy could be on his way to a remarkable season and people will just be starting to realize it.  If McCoy can help slay OU and Mizzou in back-to-back weeks, he’ll have as good a case for the Heisman as anyone in this race.

Last week:  24 of 29, 222 yards, 3 TDs, 0 Ints, 12 carries, 103 yards, 1 TD against FAU.

6. Matt Stafford, Georgia–Is Stafford finally ready to break out as a passer?  Will Mark Richt let him put up the numbers he needs to compete for the Heisman?  Looks like it so far.  But Stafford won’t have a chance to break into the top five of this list until he survives the gauntlet of South Carolina, Arizona State and Alabama that begins in a couple weeks.

Last week: 13 of 21, 275 yards, 2 TDs, 0 Ints against Georgia Southern.

7.  Percy Harvin, Florida–Harvin is hanging on a bit in this race.  He missed the Gators’ first game against Hawaii and is slated to play against Miami this Saturday.  But how healthy is he, really?  We won’t know until we see him play.  One thing is for sure:  He probably needs to explode against Miami to get back in the thick of the Heisman hunt.  A lackluster game, or another DNP could mean his chances for the Heisman have gone bye bye.

Last Week:  DNP

8. Stafon Johnson, USC–Johnson is the most likely USC back to gain the yards needed to challenge for the Heisman.  However, it seems apparent that USC is sticking with its tailback by committee approach.  Unless Johnson can get untracked in a big way against Ohio State, he’ll drop from this list.

Last week:  9 carries, 28 yards, 1 TD against Virginia

9. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech–Harrell had his typical day against Eastern Washington.  But until people stop yawning at his 500-yard passing games, he’s just a fringe candidate waiting for an opportunity.

Last week:  43 of 58, 536 yards, 2 TDs, 1 int

* * *

If the vote were held today

1. Tim Tebow

2. Chase Daniel

3. Pat White

4. Chris Wells

5. Mark Sanchez

6. Knowshon Moreno

7. Graham Harrell

8. James Laurinaitis

9. Colt McCoy

10. Sam Bradford

ESPN College GameDay Appearances By School

Rank School Shows
1. Florida 28
2. Ohio State 22
3t. Florida State 21
3t. Michigan 21
5t. Notre Dame 18
5t. Oklahoma 18
7t. Tennessee 17
7t. Miami (Fla.) 17
9. Nebraska 15
10. Southern Cal 14

Note: The list takes into account that Corso and the gang roll into Gainesville this weekend for Steve Spurrier's favorite matchup.

Interesting that LSU, Georgia, Texas, West Virginia, and other traditional powers don't make the list. I guess that just goes to show how dominate Nebraska, FSU, and Miami were in days gone by.

Comment on Top 10 ESPN GameDay appearances ranked by team...

For entertainment purposes only. And if I'm wrong, I'm guessing you'll be entertained.

Oregon State 24, Stanford 20: This smelled like a potential Stanford upset, but then the Cardinal got hit with a couple of injuries on the OL and at WR, so the Beavers get the nod in a game that figures to be low scoring. Oregon State's biggest edge is at the skill positions, and here's a guess that QB Lyle Moevao will be much smoother this season distributing the ball.

Oklahoma State 38, Washington State 24: The Cougars were hit hard by bad news this week with DT Andy Roof being kicked out of school and OT Dan Rowlands retiring due to recurring shoulder problems. The Cougars are thin on both lines. Meanwhile, the Cowboys' offensive line boasts 89 career starts, which makes this a mismatch up front.

USC 42, Virginia 10: The biggest point of interest here is how well USC QB Mark Sanchez plays after his rapid recovery from a dislocated knee. It's also worth watching to see how Pete Carroll distributes the ball among his six tailbacks. And you might want to catch the nation's best defense. Virginia is rebuilding, with just 11 starters back, and the Trojans don't do that. 

California 28, Michigan State 24: This might be the best matchup of the weekend. Kevin Riley surged late to win the Bears QB job over Nate Longshore, but Longshore is expected to see some action. Will TB Jahvid Best put on a show? Speaking of shows, Spartans tailback Javon Ringer and a huge OL will test the Bears' new 3-4 look.

Oregon 35, Washington 24: Justin Roper takes over Oregon's spread-option offense after Nate Costa went down with a knee injury, and his strong performance in the Sun Bowl suggests he is fully capable. He'll get a lot of help from Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount in the backfield and an offensive line that should have its way with the young Huskies front. A Washington upset will require a spectacular performance from QB Jake Locker, which is not beyond the realm of possibility.

Arizona 44, Idaho 20: Arizona needs a fast start and it will get it here. The veteran Wildcats offense should look good out of the gate, even without outstanding TE Rob Gronkowski. Moreover, the young defense probably will build up its confidence against an overmatched Idaho offense.

Arizona State 48, Northern Arizona 17: The Sun Devils get a preseason game. They might want to recall Appalachian State at Michigan a year ago and remember to show up.

Tennessee 27, UCLA 17: New UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel's debut is a tough one, with an SEC power coming to town. The UCLA defense and special teams could keep this one close, but the offense  -- even with guru Norm Chow calling the shots -- figures to struggle mightily against a tough Vols DL.   

From the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA):

The USC Trojans are the top-ranked team in the Football Writers Association of America's preseason Grantland Rice Super 16 Poll. The Trojans nipped second-ranked Georgia, although both schools picked up five first-place votes. It's the fourth time in five years USC has been picked No. 1 by the FWAA in the preseason.

The only other Pac-10 team in the poll is Arizona State, tied with BYU for 16th. The Big 12 placed five teams in the top 16 and the SEC had four. California and Oregon also received votes.