• Weis Watch. Another sign of Charlie Weis' impending demise: Notre Dame has blocked the university plane from appearing on flightaware.com (see for yourself), a proactive effort at cutting off the breathless surfers intent on tracking its path to Cincinnati or Gainesville or Vatican City or wherever ND's next coach is waiting. That comes on the heels of the athletic director assuring reporters that Weis' huge buyout won't affect whether he stays or goes and the two most notable Irish-centric newspapers both calling for his head almost simultaneously, completing the Holy Trinity of "You're Fired." [South Bend Tribune]

• Oh, to be a Knoxville lawyer. News leaked Tuesday that Tennessee freshman defensive back Nyshier Oliver was cited for shoplifting for allegedly walking out of a Dillard's with a $110 polo shirt just hours before the Vols' win over Memphis on Nov. 7, a relatively piddling misdemeanor that would usually pass without much notice if not for a) Last week's blockbuster armed robbery arrest involving three other UT freshmen, raising the legal antennae around Knoxville, and b) Coach Lane Kiffin's repeated statements just hours before the armed robbery news broke that his team had been entirely arrest-free over his 11-month tenure -- despite being fully aware of Oliver's shoplifting charge.

Kiffin may skate by charges that he blatantly lied on a technicality -- Oliver was cited, not arrested; his arrest warrant was issued Tuesday, and he won't be booked until Nov. 23 -- but he's certainly lost the "clean program" pitch for the next year or two. [Knoxville News-Sentinel]

• The good Cap'n a Cardinal? Hornswaggle! Weirdest coaching rumor so far in the early rounds of silly season: Mike Leach to Louisville? The Louisville Courier-Journal cites a radio interview with ex-Georgia and Marshall coach Jim Donnan, who thinks Cap'n Leach would be interested and would be "a good fit" if/when UL dumps current coach Steve Kragthorpe. That's better sourcing than CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd offers in his Leach-Louisville speculation, which seems based entirely on the pirate coach's no-buyout contract in Lubbock and the Louisville opening existing ... you know, probably, at some point in the near future. It's too strange to make up, frankly, although Leach has never lamented any extra attention. [Louisville Courier-Journal]

• Z-Rob still shaking out the cobwebs. It can't say for sure, but the Tulsa World believes that backup quarterback Alex Cate has been taking most of the snaps in Oklahoma State's preparation for Colorado Thursday night, though starter Zac Robinson is still expected to suit up and possibly be available for senior night in Stillwater despite being knocked silly by Texas Tech's Jamar Wall last Saturday. Think of it as an investment, Cowboy fans: It may be Robinson's last home game, but his presence is not mandatory for beating the sad-sack Buffaloes, and it can never hurt to get the quarterback of the future some live reps. [Tulsa World]

• No one snubs Urban's cubs. Urban Meyer will be "upset" if the Tebow Child isn't invited to New York for the Heisman ceremony for the third consecutive season: "Absolutely, yeah I’ll be upset. ... He's the quarterback of the No. 1 team in college football. I think the Heisman goes to the best player, and it’d be hard to argue that he’s not." Actually, it's fairly easy to argue: Florida is relying far more on its dominant defense to make up for a good-not-great offense averaging 50 fewer yards and 16 fewer points in SEC games than it did in 2008, and Tebow is well behind Ryan Mallett as the league's best statistical passer. But don't let semantics get in the way: Tebow will be in New York, because his exclusion from the proceedings will only hasten the horrors of the tribulation. The Downtown Athletic Club makes its decisions based on the relatively peaceful continuity of human civilization, not stats. [Palm Beach Post]

Quickly ... James Vandenberg is one poised quarterback. ... The victim in an alleged assault case against Auburn's Eric Smith is suing Smith and two unnamed Tiger players. ... Washington State linebacker Jason Stripling was arrested for assault and obstructing a public servant, both misdemeanors. ... Old hat Jerry Glanville resigns at Portland State. ... And yes, that is a 13-year-old middle-schooler being touted as "probably the most celebrated high school recruit in history" before enrolling in high school.

1. Mark Ingram, Alabama–Ingram had another good game, rushing for 149 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries against Mississippi State.  He’ll pad his stats some more against Chattanooga next Saturday, then will have a chance to clinch the Heisman against Auburn and Florida.  On the year, he has 1,297 yards and 10 touchdowns, with another 25 catches for 225 yards and three scores.  He is on pace to have 1,686 yards and 13 touchdowns by the time the Heisman vote is due.   If he keeps doing what he has been doing and then closes out strong in a win over Florida, I like his chances of winning the Heisman.  However, the surges by running backs Toby Gerhart and C.J. Spiller could dilute some of his strength across the various voting regions.  Ingram’s old advantage of being the only legitimate running back in a race filled with quarterbacks might be turned on its head as he could end up being one of three running back candidates versus just one quarterback (McCoy).  This is one reason why I give him only a slight edge over McCoy right now.

2. Colt McCoy, Texas–McCoy is playing well of late and is coming off a 181-yard, two-TD performance in a rout of Baylor.  On the year, he has 2,628 passing yards, with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while completing 72 percent of his passes.  He is on pace to have 3,416 passing yards, 25 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions by the time the Heisman vote is due.  Is this enough to overcome Ingram’s late surge?  The imminent collapse of Case Keenum’s candidacy should move some voters his way and many will be impressed by his career achievements, including the most wins ever by a quarterback.  McCoy is in a fairly good position:  If Alabama beats Florida, it eliminates the last quarterback with a shot at garnering significant support (Tebow) and makes McCoy the most viable option at that position.  If Florida beats Alabama, though, it could increase Tebow’s support at Ingram’s expense while making it likely that neither can beat out McCoy.  Of course, McCoy has to finish strong and get Texas to the BCS title game to make all this work.   

3. Toby Gerhart, Stanford–I wrote earlier last week about the player with the best chance of mounting a late-season run at the Heisman.  It was a wild scenario dependent on Gerhart having a big game against USC.  Well, he rushed for 178 yards and three touchdowns against the Trojans, giving him 1,395 yards and 19 touchdowns on the season.  He’s on pace to have 1,674 yards and 23 touchdowns by the time the Heisman vote is due (in 12 games, versus 13 for Ingram and McCoy).  Gerhart is still a longshot, but he does have a shot.  Of course, Stanford needs to win out, which would mean respectable wins over Cal and Notre Dame to give the Cardinal a 9-3 record.  He would need for Ingram to wilt down the stretch, yet for Alabama to beat Florida, thus eliminating both Ingram and Tebow.  Meanwhile, McCoy would have to underwhelm the rest of the way, while Gerhart closes with big games against the Bears and the Irish.  Can it happen?  Sure.  Will it?  There’s the rub.  Stanford needs to start making its case on his behalf, anyway. 

4. Tim Tebow, Florida–Tebow had 199 yards and one touchdown passing, along with 26 yards and a touchdown rushing against South Carolina.  On the year, he has 1,730 passing yards, 12 TD passes and four interceptions, along with 604 rushing yards and 10 scores.   He is on pace to have 2,249 passing yards, 16 touchdown passes, five interceptions, 785 rushing yards and 13 scores by the time the Heisman vote is due.  I think Tebow’s Heisman hopes are dwindling fast and his only hope is to put up crazy numbers from this point on.  Of course, the Gators need to win out, but he also needs for Ingram, McCoy and Gerhart to tank.  I think that is unlikely to happen, but you never know.

If the vote were held today

1. Mark Ingram

2. Colt McCoy

3. Tim Tebow

4. Toby Gerhart

5. Case Keenum

6. C.J. Spiller

7. Kellen Moore

8. Ndamukong Suh

9. Jimmy Clausen

10. Jordan Shipley

Here is a quick run down on some injured Trojans.

The Good News:

Fullback Stanley Havili practiced yesterday and is expected to start on Saturday. Havili injured his shoulder vs. Notre Dame last month.

Defensive end Everson Griffen got some work in yesterday and said that he will play on Saturday. Griffen missed the ASU game because of turf toe.

Tight end Anthony McCoy is close to returning to practice. He did some light rehab work yesterday and is going to try to practice on Tuesday or Wednesday. He is anxious to get back on the field.

The Bad News:

Our all world receiver, Damian Williams, has a boot on his ankle after injuring it against ASU. Williams leads the team in catches with 45, receiving years with 688 and five TDs. He is also the most clutch player on the team, delivering big plays (two punt returns for TDs) when the team needs them most. If Williams can’t play, look for Brice Butler to start opposite Ronald Johnson. Travon Patterson and Jordan Cameron will fill in at the third receiver spot.

Ankle sprains keeps Williams on sideline [ocregister]
Dispatch from Howard Jones [uscripsit]

What if Toby Gerhart rushes for 200 yards and scores three or four touchdowns in a Stanford win over USC this Saturday?

It would be the third 200-yard effort of the season for Gerhart and his second-straight 200-yard game against a top 10 foe.  It’d give him upwards of 1,420 rushing yards and 19 or 20 touchdowns with two games remaining before Heisman votes are due.  His two remaining matchups would be against Cal and Notre Dame, both games of respectable national interest where he could potentially run wild.  And once his statistical prowess was established, his status as an atypical-for-this-era back from an academic powerhouse would be appealing to many Heisman voters.    

This all wouldn’t make Gerhart a lock to win, but he’d at least be a major factor in the race.  It’s the only possible (and plausible) scenario I can think of that could catapult a player other than Ingram, McCoy and Tebow into Heisman contention at this point in the season.

The Sark Virus

Dictionary: vac·cine (văk-sēn', văk'sēn'), n. A preparation of a weakened or killed pathogen, such as a bacterium or virus, or of a portion of the pathogen's structure that upon administration stimulates antibody production or cellular immunity against the pathogen but is incapable of causing severe infection.

Paragon commented below on Chip Kelly's visits with Jon Gruden and their likely collaboration on a scheme to defeat USC's Tampa 2 defense. While there is little doubt that Kelly learned much from Gruden, in football there is no substitute for practice followed by live experience and further practice to help you perfect your scheme. A perfect scheme can give a team "immunity" against an adversary.

When Steve Sarkisian and Nick Holt moved to the University of Washington they installed offensive and defensive systems virtually identical those at USC. Sark and Holt were able to create a scheme to defeat USC on Sept. 19th thanks to their intimate knowledge of every phase of USC's playbook. That game produced a wealth of information for all of USC's future opponents, but in addition a total of 6 of USC's adversaries have or will have had the opportunity to practice against USC by playing a "weakened pathogen" or vaccine known as the Sark Virus of Washington.The Sark Virus vaccine contains attenuated USC offensive and defensive structures (or antigens) that can produce strong or even absolute immunity against USC infection.

If only the CDC could be this efficient

The following table shows that Stanford, Notre Dame, Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, and UCLA all get Sark Virus immunization this year before playing USC:

9/25/09	Washington at Stanford
10/03/09	Washington at Notre Dame
10/10/09	Arizona at Washington
10/17/09	Washington at Arizona State	USC at Notre Dame
10/24/09	Oregon at Washington*
10/31/09		USC at Oregon
11/07/09	Washington at UCLA	USC at Arizona State
11/14/09		Stanford at USC
11/28/09		UCLA at USC
12/05/09		Arizona at USC

*Oregon was vaccinated exactly one week before facing USC

Predictable Results?

The Oregon and Washington debacles show the extreme value of a perfectly crafted gameplan and live experience. In retrospect, this makes USC's victory at Notre Dame seem a little bit more remarkable.

Everyone has heard of "scheduling for success," but this years schedule, front loaded with tough road games and with opponents that are fully informed and extensively practiced against USC's methods is a schedule for misery. Difficult times may lay ahead against ASU, Stanford, Arizona and perhaps even lowly UCLA unless USC's coaches are able to develop new weapons or "antigens" that will defeat fully developed "antibodies."

The Trojans will have to survive a real house of hunts with a raucous Halloween night crowd, rain and wind in the 1st half and an Oregon team that is operating at the top of its game.

The fourth ranked Trojans have not left the state of Oregon with a victory since 2005 and will have to play together and disciplined in all phases of the game to for them to leave with a victory.

5 things to keep track of plus the obvious:

1- USC’s Defensive Line vs. Oregon’s Offensive Line: Oregon’s offensive line is fairly inexperienced and has yet to play a top tier defensive line. The Trojans must get penetration early and break-up Oregon’s offensive rhythm. The key to stopping any spread attack is linebackers being able to stay home and cause havoc on the short passing game and mis-directional running plays.

The emergence of the spread offense has led defensive coaches to really focus on it in the offseason and will see if that hard work pays off on Saturday.

2- Force Oregon into obvious passing situations: The Oregon offense is very potent when they are running the ball 2/3 of the time and not forced into throwing situations longer than 10 yards. Oregon only averages 157 yards passing a game. The hurry up aspect of Oregon’s offense is based on a solid running game where they like to hand it off or throw a pass behind the line of scrimmage 85% of the time.

Oregon prefers to throw the ball less than 20 times and Masoli is a weak mid to deep thrower under pressure. Evidence of that was clear in USC’s 44-10 victory over Oregon in the Coliseum last year.

Oregon tailback LaMichael James might be the second best back in the conference behind Oregon State’s Jacquizz Rogers. He is a great cut-back runner and has the ability to make a big gain at the blink of an eye. Containing James will be the key to forcing Oregon into 3rd and long situations.

(More of what to look for after the jump)

These are the eight weekly Mackey Award winners this season:

Week 1 Cody Slate Marshall
Week 2 Zack Pianalto North Carolina
Week 3 Kyle Rudolph Notre Dame
Week 4 Ed Dickson Oregon
Week 5 Dennis Pitta BYU
Week 6 Tony Moeaki Iowa
Week 7 Anthony McCoy USC
Week 8 Michael Palmer Clemson

1. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama–56 (9)

2. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame–26 (1)

3. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas–25

4. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida–23 (1)

5. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska–15 (1)

6. Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame–10 (1)

Case Keenum, QB, Houston–10

8. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State–8

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State–8

10. Eric Berry, DB, Tennessee–4

Others receiving votes: Noel Devine, RB, West Virginia–3; C.J Spiller, RB, Clemson–2; Ryan Williams, RB, Va. Tech–2; Zac Robinson, QB, Oklahoma State–1; Dion Lewis, RB, Pittsburgh–1; Matt Barkley, QB, USC–1

About the Poll
 
The HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll is made up of 13 Heisman voters from across the country. They vote for five players each week. Tabulations are made on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis, with five points awarded for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on.  Last year’s final Heismanpundit poll was the most accurate in the country, picking five of the top six finishers in the Heisman vote, including the winner.

Members of the panel include: Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel, Teddy Greenstein and Brian Hamilton of the Chicago Tribune, Olin Buchanan and Tom Dienhart of Rivals.com, Jenni Carlson of The Oklahoman, Bruce Feldman of ESPN.com, J.B. Morris of ESPN the Magazine, Austin Murphy, B.J. Schecter and Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated, plus Dick Weiss of the New York Daily News. 

Chris Huston of HeismanPundit.com coordinates and also votes in the poll.
 
HP’s Thoughts
 
Mark Ingram has taken a commanding lead in the race and he should stay there for at least another week as Alabama uses a bye in preparation for LSU on Nov. 7.    It appears Tim Tebow’s quest for a second Heisman is in major jeopardy unless he can turn things around soon.  In the meantime, Colt McCoy and Jimmy Clausen have gained ground and one of them should emerge as the quarterback alternative to Ingram.  October has been a rough month for most of the Heisman field and, as a result, it looks like this race could go down to the wire.
 
Heisman Game of the Week
 
No. 3 Texas at No. 13 Oklahoma State–Preseason favorite McCoy had a strong outing against Missouri last week and might be back on track after a rather erratic first half of the season.  The Cowboys are the last ranked team on the Texas schedule, so it’s vital that McCoy play well–Heisman voters will be watching.   It’s also a golden opportunity for McCoy to whittle away at Ingram’s lead while ‘Bama is on that bye week.

Player to Watch

Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska–It’s been 18 seasons since a defensive tackle finished among the top five in the Heisman vote.  That player was Steve Emtman of Washington.  Suh has a chance to join him in that elite group if he keeps playing like he has been.  Suh is amazingly active for an interior player, leading the Cornhuskers (or tying for the lead) in 10 defensive categories, including tackles (44), tackles for loss (10), sacks (4), pass breakups (7), interceptions (1) and blocked field goals (2).

This Week in Heisman History
 
Unbeaten Ole Miss held a 3-0 lead over unbeaten LSU five minutes into the fourth quarter on Halloween night, 1959.  A Jake Gibbs punt was fielded at the LSU 11-yard line by Tiger halfback Billy Cannon, who proceeded to wiggle his way through numerous tacklers en route to a miraculous 89-yard return for a touchdown.  The score turned out to be the difference in LSU’s classic 7-3 victory and it clinched Cannon’s eventual Heisman triumph.

Mike Riley is a great coach: Riley proved once again that he is one of the most underrated coaches in the country. Why Tennessee (Riley has southern roots) or programs that have the infrastructure to be consistent top 15 teams have not intensely pursued him blows my mind. Riley and the OSU coaching staff had the Trojans number for the second year in a row on Saturday and he made one of the best defenses in the country look very pedestrian. Oregon State never quit and was one possession away from possibly winning the game.

The Rogers brothers aren’t too bad either. . .307 total yards and 2 touchdowns against the best defense in the Pac-10…

USC game MVP’s= Alan Bradford and Jeremy Bates: Is Lendale White back playing for the Trojans? Alan Bradford sure brought back memories of the former great Trojan tailback. The Trojans are starting to develop a mini Thunder-Lightning package which is going to really help keep opponents guessing. Bradford’s bruising style of running is complemented by deceptive top end speed that allows him to break off big runs like the 46 yard touchdown run in the second half. When Bradford is running hard it gives the Trojans offense a power mentality that fires everyone up and is the perfect compliment to a finesse style of offense.

Jeremy Bates called another fantastic game. With the exception of calling a long pass play in the 4th quarter up 13 points which was intercepted, Bates mixed up his play calling brilliantly and took advantage of a porous Oregon State pass defense. Bates continued to utilize the Tight Ends while allowing the running game to get into a rhythm.

(More on Bates and other observations after the jump)

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Miami (-5) over Clemson

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Stanford (-7.5) over Arizona St

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USC (-20.5) over Oregon St

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Dr. Bob thinks USC should put up 40 points and is a good bet ATS. Analysis after the jump.