A few hours ago I posted about the possible scenarios that would take USC to the BCS National Championship game and calculated that the Trojans could only make it in 0.24% of the possible outcomes. The scenarios were correct. The math? Not so much. Turns out that in a land of hypotheticals and coin flips, USC has better than a 50% shot.

Several of you smelled something fishy. Fortunately, a USC graduate student named Anthony Christodoulou cleared the air. When in doubt, email an engineer!

"There are really only 8 games of any importance that are out of SC's control, not 11," explained Anthony. Why? "The Big 12 championship is one game, not three (it doesn't matter who plays in it) and you said yourself that Alabama/Auburn doesn't matter. That means you have 2^8 = 256 possible outcomes."

That's a big step down from the 2,048 I suggested. I also neglected the fact that slipping ahead of either the SEC or Big 12 champ would render the scenarios in the other conference irrelevant, since USC would already be in the title game.

He broke it down in several tables (they don't fit here, but email me if you want them) and explained what the odds really look like from a mathematical perspective, assuming USC leaps any two-loss team:

"131 outcomes of 256 games actually result in a USC appearance the championship ... In other words, if all of these teams were evenly matched, USC would be most likely in. Nobody thinks Baylor, Texas A&M, The Citadel, Missouri, or FSU are nearly evenly matched with their opponents, of course, so if you give each of those 5 teams a 25% chance to win (Mizzou probably has more, but the rest of the teams probably have less), and estimate that the other 3 games are evenly matched, the probability drops to about 28%."

All this depends on USC running the table against arch rivals Notre Dame and UCLA, and Anthony pointed out that 25% might be generous odds for some of the underdogs. Before you rush off to Vegas, remember that 64 of the 131 scenarios depend on Florida losing to The Citadel (a Division 2 school with a 4-7 record) for the first time in history and 30 depend on Baylor beating Texas Tech (which last happened in 1995).

One more caveat: five of the outcomes that place USC in the title game depend on the Trojans winning a popularity contest in the BCS end-of-days scenario. That's where voters would have to chose between an 11-1 USC team, an 11-2 Big 12 champion Mizzou, and a pair of 11-1 Big 12 teams that were shut out of the conference championship game. As explained in this post, USC isn't getting enough style points for that.

The final 32 scenarios depend on Florida State upsetting Florida, then a two-loss Florida upsetting Alabama. Even that could lead to some voter turmoil.

Thanks again to Anthony, who gets the final word: "Fight on Florida, fight on Mizzou!"

-- Adam Rose

Following up on this weekend's commentary about USC's (non-existent) hopes of playing for the BCS Championship game, I hacked into the BCS computers and calculated all the possible outcomes.

Assuming the Trojans run the table, they have less than a one-quarter-of-one-percent-chance of making the BCS Championship Game. And that's before weighing in obvious things that Vegas would consider. If you think Texas Tech will beat Baylor (hint: it will), the hope gets much slimmer. But, hey, maybe the Citadel can beat Florida. In 2080.

The BCS rankings came out yesterday and they're identical to last week, at least at the top:

1. Alabama (11-0)
2. Texas Tech (10-0)
3. Texas (10-1)
4. Florida (9-1)
5. Oklahoma (9-1)
6. USC (9-1)

What boxes out the Trojans is that the five teams ahead of them all play in the same two leagues and have a conference championship game. Even though they might beat up on each other in the home stretch, at least two should to wind up with a "prettier" finish than USC. If I've done my math right (you're welcome to check), there are 11 games or potential games that are out of USC's control resulting in 2,048 scenarios. Of those, a whopping six could get USC into the BCS title game, with the Trojans jumping a mountain of two-loss teams. Again, this assumes Trojan victories over Notre Dame and UCLA.

If you hit any of these parlays in Vegas, drinks are on you. For the rest of your life.

SCENARIO 1: SEC swamps itself, a.k.a. USC's best hope

• Florida loses to the Citadel and/or Florida State.
• Florida beats Alabama.
• Note: Even if Alabama loses to Auburn, it will be a one-loss SEC Champ if it beats Florida -- so it would probably go ahead of USC on "style points."
• FINAL RECORDS: SEC champ Florida (10-3 or 11-2), Alabama (12-1 or 11-2 depending on Auburn game).

SCENARIO 2: Big chaos in the Big 12, Spread Option 1

• Texas loses to Texas A&M.
• Texas Tech beats Oklahoma.
• Texas Tech loses to Baylor.
• Texas Tech loses to Missouri in the conference championship.
• FINAL RECORDS: Big-12 champ Mizzou (11-2 or 10-3 depending on Kansas game), Texas (10-2), Texas Tech (11-2), Oklahoma (10-2 or 9-3 depending on Oklahoma State game).

SCENARIO 3: Big chaos in the Big 12, Spread Option 2

• Texas loses to Texas A&M.
• Oklahoma beats Texas Tech.
• Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State.
• Texas Tech loses to Baylor.
• Oklahoma loses to Missouri in the conference championship.
• FINAL RECORDS: Big-12 champ Mizzou (11-2 or 10-3 depending on Kansas game), Texas (10-2), Oklahoma (10-2), Texas Tech (10-2).

SCENARIO 4: Big chaos in the Big 12, Spread Option 3

• Texas beats Texas A&M
• Oklahoma beats Texas Tech
• Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State
• Texas Tech loses to Baylor
• Texas loses to Missouri in the conference championship
• FINAL RECORDS: Big-12 champ Mizzou (11-2 or 10-3 depending on Kansas game), Texas (11-2), Texas Tech (10-2), Oklahoma (10-2).

SCENARIO 5: Ultimate chaos in the Big 12 and world at large

• Texas loses to Texas A&M.
• Oklahoma beats Texas Tech.
• Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State.
• Texas Tech loses to Baylor.
• Conference championship is between Mizzou and another 2-loss team, leaving the winner totally irrelevant. 
• FINAL RECORDS: It doesn't really matter. The world would be over, anyway. Dogs and cats, living together ... it would just be frightening.

Gasp. I need oxygen like LenDale White after a 10-yard pickup.

All five of these scenarios are unlikely, but there's another one that stands a reasonable chance. It could break the BCS machine for good. All true Americans, including Barack Obama, are rooting for this to happen:

• Oklahoma beats Texas Tech.
• Texas Tech beats Baylor.
• Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State.
• Texas beats Texas A&M.
• Mizzou beats the Big 12 South rep, which would be Texas, Texas Tech or Oklahoma, depending on who has the highest BCS ranking.
• FINAL RECORDS: Big 12 champ Mizzou is 11-2 or 10-3 depending on the Kansas game. One of the three other teams is 11-2. Two of the other teams are 11-1.

Then what? You can't pick a two-loss champ (Mizzou) over a one-loss champ (USC), right? But how do you ignore two one-loss teams that were left out of their conference championship but finished with a better record than the two teams that played in it? They would have the same record as the Trojans (assuming those Notre Dame and UCLA victories) and would have played stiffer competition.

Maybe if this happens, somebody will get physical with the BCS organizers.

-- Adam Rose

POSTSCRIPT (because I don't know how to make a sidebar)

I wasn't kidding -- if you want to check my math on the number of scenarios, I counted 11 games (including potential matchups) with two possible outcomes each. Raise 2 to the 11th power on your trusty scientific calculator (we all carry those around, right?) and you get 2,048. Here are the games:

Oklahoma-Texas Tech
Oklahoma-Oklahoma State
Texas Tech-Baylor
Texas-Texas A&M
Mizzou-Texas or Mizzou-Texas Tech or Mizzou-Oklahoma
Florida-Alabama
Alabama-Auburn
Florida-Citadel
Florida-Florida State

If you're a math wiz, let me know if I over-weighted the three Big 12 championship game possibilities or Florida's remaining regular season games.

USC remained sixth in the latest BCS standings and its computer ranking held steady at eighth, but the Trojans are no longer alone in the standings.

Oregon State jumped into the standings at No. 21 and state rival Oregon is just behind at No. 24.

The Beavers are also ranked 21st in the Harris, AP and coaches' polls, while Oregon is 22nd in the Harris and coaches' polls and 24th with the AP.

USC is sixth in every poll.

By coaching in his 100th game for USC on Saturday, Pete Carroll joined an elite fraternity of Trojans icons. The only other three to have done so are Howard Jones (1925-40), John McKay (1960-75) and John Robinson (1976-82, 1993-97).

Carroll has a better winning percentage (.850) than any of them, but it doesn’t mean he is remotely satisfied.

Asked Sunday night what jumps out at him in reflecting on the first 100, Carroll said: “If there were a handful of games we would’ve won, we would’ve done a whole lot better.”

USC hasn’t lost more than two games since 2001, Carroll’s first season. But those defeats are the games that stick with him.

“It’s unfortunate that we let those games get away from us. Honestly, that’s the way I look at it,” said Carroll, whose winning percentage is the highest among active coaches with at least five years of experience.

“We had a couple different shots here that would have made a world of difference.”

More from the USC blog:

• USC football: Carroll takes shot at SEC
• USC football: Carroll says call against Turner was wrong
• USC football: McKnight aggravates toe injury
• USC football: Holding steady at No. 6 in BCS
• Five observations on USC-Stanford

He claimed to have no clue about conference power rankings, but he did say this:

“It seems like the SEC gets a lot of credit for stuff. All I know is when we play them, we do pretty well against those guys. That’s the only way I can compare.”

More from the USC blog:

• USC football: 100 games in, 15 losses bug Carroll the most
• USC football: Carroll says call against Turner was wrong
• USC football: McKnight aggravates toe injury
• USC football: Holding steady at No. 6 in BCS
• Five observations on USC-Stanford

But Pete Carroll believes USC should have had one fewer penalty, claiming that a holding call on Patrick Turner in the third quarter should not have been whistled.

“The holding penalty on Patrick is so far off,” Carroll said of a call that took 10 yards off a 17-yard gain by Joe McKnight. “He made a dominant block and drove the guy on his back.”

More from the USC blog:

• USC football: 100 games in, 15 losses bug Carroll the most
• USC football: Carroll takes shot at SEC
• USC football: McKnight aggravates toe injury
• USC football: Holding steady at No. 6 in BCS
• Five observations on USC-Stanford

According to the Wynn Sportsbook in Las Vegas, USC would be favored in a BCS title game against anyone.

• USC vs Alabama (+11.0)
• USC vs Texas (+5.5)
• USC vs Texas Tech (+4.5)
• USC vs Oklahoma (+2.5)
• USC vs Florida (+1.5)

That's not media hype. It's real money predicting the most likely outcomes.

Red-hot Gators focused on the task at hand [ESPN via Ted Miller]

The Pac-10 blog has often called USC the most-talented team in the nation.

While something like that can't be measured and proclaimed a fact like, say, 2 + 2 = 4 is a fact, most folks without an agenda recognize that as a reasonably true statement.

Some know it to be reasonable true but deny it because they have an agenda. Others make fuzzy arguments and use hackneyed terms like "overrated."

We've also noted that USC would be favored against any other team.

That bothers many folks.

The Pac-10 blog seeks not to bother.

It merely seeks that which is reasonably true amid a maelstrom of regional emotions that are insufficiently governed by a BCS system that often confounds that quest.

So... this from Chris Fowler's column should help everyone who's been confused and bothered by the Pac-10 blog's quest for truth.

Fowler checked in the Wynn sports book in Las Vegas. Here's what he found:

While we're on the topic, here are some of their other thoughts on potential matchups for the BCS title game in Miami:

• Alabama would be an underdog against any of the Big 12 teams it could face. Texas Tech or Texas would be rated about a touchdown favorite and Oklahoma would be favored by 8½. USC would be an 11-point pick over the Tide in by far the most lopsided (on paper) potential title game.
• The Trojans, in fact, would be favored over all potential BCS opponents. OU would be a 2½-point underdog to USC, Texas Tech a 4-point dog, and Texas 5½ points. One of the most evenly matched title games would be USC and Florida, with the Gators a 1½-point underdog.

This doesn't mean that USC should, necessarily, be rated ahead of any other one-loss team questing for inclusion in the BCS title chase.

It merely means that folks who insist that USC shouldn't be included in the discussion are not taking a reasonably true position.

College football doesn’t need a playoff because it already has a playoff, right? The glorious regular season!

Every game counts. Every Saturday matters. Every matchup is do-or-die.

September to January. The whole thing is one magnificent tournament of gridiron love!

Fudge bars!!!

If college football’s regular season is a playoff, it’s the most poorly conceived one in the history of sports, which, as we understand it, started several years ago.

How can anything be sold as an acceptable format when it’s single-elimination for some schools, double-elimination for others?

Florida lost to Ole Miss and yet has survived. The instant Texas Tech loses, the Red Raiders will be as done as Amos Alonzo Stagg.

And how about the teams that don’t lose at all and still are eliminated from BCS finals consideration? If these are the playoffs, Ball State should be alive until someone defeats the Cardinals. Period.

You know how people mock baseball because the American and National leagues can’t even play by the same rules concerning the designated hitter?

How about if the American League’s best regular-season team advanced directly to the World Series, while the National League required its top two teams to play each other for the right to advance?

Laughable, huh?

Well, that’s exactly what happens in college football, where the Pac-10 and Big Ten continue to identify champions every fall without staging a championship game?

You do realize how much of an advantage this has been for USC and Ohio State in recent years, correct?

Not having to play in the Pac-10 Championship Game Presented By Geico probably has saved the Trojans at least once.

But no one wants to hear that. Not at this point. The final weeks of the regular season are upon us, and we can’t wait to see who wins these crucial games.

Even more, we can’t wait to see how the victories are interpreted and which teams are picked to play for the next bogus title.

• The Trojans, owners of the nation's No. 1 defense, haven't allowed a touchdown in more than 10 quarters.
• The Trojans have held their last four opponents to under 200 yards of total offense.
• In five games in the Coliseum this year -- a schedule that included three ranked teams -- the Trojans have outscored their opponents 180-16.
• Cal entered the game with the nation's No. 19 scoring offense (36.4 points per game) but scored only three points, its lowest output since 2000. The Bears previous scoring low this season is 24 points.

Miller wasn't pointing all this out to build USC up as much as he was saying that even the most suffocating defense won't win a national title without some help.

Defense used to win championships, but in the BCS era you need to score style points.

-- Adam Rose

PS: I don't just like his blog because he also uses bullet-points and double-dashes -- honest.