So to help break it down, here’s one man’s take on three key developments:

1. Todd McNair, star witness
According to reports, the NCAA’s Committee on Infractions spent the better part of two days grilling Todd McNair, the incumbent USC running backs coach. That’s a clear indicator that the Reggie Bush situation is the centerpiece of the NCAA’s probe. McNair was Bush’s position coach in 2004 and ‘05, so if any school employee knew what Bush and his family were up to, it had to be McNair, who’s like a father figure (or at least a big brother) to his charges. The extent of what he knew is critical to the case, particularly in determining how severely USC should be punished. This was extremely serious stuff, so much so that McNair “lawyered up” for the hearing. It’ll be interesting to see how, if at all, McNair’s involvement affects his future at USC. He technically remains part of the staff, but Lane Kiffin hasn’t finished putting it together, and it’s conceivable he will be “encouraged” to sever all ties to Bush (although Kiffin was part of that staff as well, and he will insist that all staff decisions were made solely for football reasons).

2. Floyd: Friend or foe?
Among Saturday’s star witnesses was former basketball coach Tim Floyd, who appeared on behalf of USC but also to defend himself. Given that he steadfastly has denied the allegations against him and reportedly continued to do so Saturday, one has to wonder if Floyd’s version of events was consistent with the school’s — and if there were discrepancies, how much that will work against USC. Floyd didn’t exactly leave on the best of terms with Mike Garrett, although the two shook hands at the hearing, according to this story. (We can only presume that handshake rivaled Bill Belichick-Eric Mangini I on the awkwardness scale.) Regardless of how the committee viewed Floyd’s testimony, my best guess is that the NCAA won’t penalize the basketball program beyond the self-imposed sanctions already in place. At the time, Garett said they were “consistent with penalties imposed at other NCAA member institutions which have been cited with similar rules infractions.” If they weren’t, someone should be fired.

3. Longest. Hearing. Ever.
The quote of the weekend came from David Price, the NCAA’s vice president of enforcement, who, besides having a cool job title, described the meeting as “my longest in 11 years” of duty. That, plus the ballyhooed seven boxes of documents wheeled out of the conference room, has led to speculation that USC could get hit harder than Garrett and others anticipated. (This New York Times account delves into the more-boxes theory and includes a quote from recruit Seantrel Henderson’s father, who says his son’s decision about a school might, for lack of concrete information, come from the gut.) But given that the investigation took nearly four years, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that the hearing felt that long. It’s obviously a complex case, perhaps one whose outcome hinges on witness testimony. The results might not be revealed for 10 weeks, also an abnormally lengthy period, at which time USC finally will learn its fate. My prediction, for whatever it’s worth: The football program will lose scholarships and will have to vacate victories — including the Jan. 4, 2006, BCS title game — but won’t face a postseason ban.

More USC football posts:

USC vs. the NCAA: What does it all mean? is a post from: USC

In the meantime, here's a refresher course on the most high profile, longest-running college football scandal of the decade:

• The Charges: Documents and numerous sources have connected Bush to more than $300,000 in improper benefits from competing camps attempting to woo one of the nation's biggest stars as a client during his sophomore and junior seasons in 2004-05. Between marketing pro Mike Ornstein (an ex-con for whom Bush interned in 2005) and fledgling partners Michael Michaels and Lloyd Lake (another ex-con), Bush was reportedly funneled airfare, limo rides, clothes, expensive hotel stays, $13,000 to buy a Chevrolet Impala and weekly payments of at least $1,500. There was also the infamous 3,000-square-foot home in Spring Valley, Calif., purchased by Michaels, where Bush's mother and stepfather allegedly lived for a year, amounting to about $54,000 in free rent they promised to repay when Bush turned pro.

Michaels and Lake raised reporters' eyebrows after Bush chose Ornstein as his agent in 2006, evicting Bush's parents from the home and preparing multimillion-dollar lawsuits against Bush for fraud. Michaels eventually settled out of court for $300,000; Lake's case against Bush is still creeping forward through a thicket of appeals and depositions reportedly halted by gun-wielding goons.

The most stinging charge the NCAA can levy against USC itself is "lack of institutional control," which became a very real possibility when investigators reportedly combined the Bush probe with their investigation into former Trojan hoops star O.J. Mayo, whose already-notorious handler was caught so red-handed in alleged cash exchanges with ex-coach Tim Floyd that the school went ahead and preemptively flogged itself with a self-imposed postseason ban in exchange for (they hope) leniency from Big Brother. Combined with the program's unusual openness to celebrities and outsiders of all stripes under Pete Carroll, the longstanding innuendo about its generally cozy relationship with agent-type life forms, the fishy rent arrangement between Bush teammates Matt Leinart and Dwayne Jarrett and its own investigation into a suspicious SUV driven by outgoing tailback Joe McKnight (who forebodingly arrived at SC labeled as "the next Reggie Bush"), it's not hard to come to the conclusion that the athletic department is (or was) something of an open market.

• The Defense: The hitch in the "prosecution," from the NCAA's perspective, has always been less about proving Bush was on the take -- almost no one at this point would even attempt to make that argument with a straight face -- than making the crucial leap from innuendo to proof against the university itself. Both Carroll, as he was leaving the school to take over the head coaching job at Seattle, and new coach Lane Kiffin (Bush's offensive coordinator in 2005) have recently pleaded ignorance; Kiffin, attempting to quell the doubts of top recruit Seantrel Henderson earlier this month, reportedly told Henderson's family the program should be fine "because there was no knowledge of anything going on by the staff." New Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott, who can presumably cite the results of the conference's internal investigation in his sleep, said earlier this week he doesn't expect serious sanctions.

If the NCAA is able to tie the Bush and McKnight cases to the more brazen Mayo hijinks under a single, "lack of control" umbrella, it may not have to charge USC with anything except negligence -- i.e. not knowing that ex-cons are buttering up star players is as bad as ignoring or facilitating it -- to justify a heavy-handed response. If not, the burden is much tougher; as NCAA Executive Director David Price reminded Don Yeager for Yeager's book on the scandal, Tarnished Heisman, the NCAA wasn't able to go after Michigan when it learned former Heisman winner Charles Woodson had accepted money from an agent while playing for the Wolverines because it couldn't prove anything against the program: "We had no information that there was any institutional knowledge; therefore, we did not take any action against the institution or even bring charges."

On that front, the most damning claim against USC is Lake's allegation in Yeager's book that he was in the room with Bush's stepfather as he discussed the sketchy housing arrangement with Carroll over the phone. Other evidence is similarly vague and circumstantial, such as various rumors that coaches and administrators (including Carroll and athletic director Mike Garrett, another former Heisman winner) were tipped off about Bush's arrangements, were well-acquainted with the sleazier elements on the fringes of the program and were often in position to notice Bush and his family spending well above their means. Running backs coach Todd McNair (twice convicted himself on suspicion of breeding dogs for fighting during his NFL career) has been accused of socializing with sketchy characters who wanted access to players and with Bush during at least one of his high-priced hotel stays.

Even if you could prove that kind of chatter, it doesn't amount to much in the way of a smoking gun. So far, there is no firm evidence in any published reports to date that anyone at USC had direct knowledge of improper benefits to any football player, which probably means the NCAA doesn't have it, either.

• The Fallout: Long-held visions of white-gloved men marching out of Heritage Hall with Bush's 2005 Heisman Trophy and/or the 2004 BCS championship trophy are misplaced, not least because the NCAA has no control over either. BCS power brokers or the Downtown Athletic Club of New York may confer later to dole out their own brand of justice, but the worst the NCAA will do in the way of that kind of symbolism is "vacate" wins from the wildly successful 2004-05 seasons -- a popular punishment lately, employed against Oklahoma, Florida State and Alabama in the last four years, but a relatively empty one when it comes to deterrence. If this case is about anything from the NCAA's point of view, it' has to be preventing a dozen more like from breaking out across the country.

As pointed out earlier this week, and the L.A. Times chronicled on Wednesday, significant sanctions -- postseason bans, television bans, aggressive scholarship reductions -- are almost unheard of against Division I-A football programs, Florida States and Central Floridas alike, over the last decade. After 20 years of consistent, meaningful probation against powerhouse programs (outstanding teams from Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Miami, Texas A&M and Washington were all held out of bowl games in the eighties and nineties, to name only a few, and SMU's program was famously disbanded for two years at the height of its success), the heavy hand disappeared almost entirely under late president Myles Brand, who came into office in 2002 with two major teams (Alabama and California) serving bowl bans and oversaw the administration of exactly zero over the next seven years. If the Infractions Committee finds USC guilty of any serious infraction, it could easily look to make an example of the Trojans to rebuff that increasingly soft image. There's no evidence it's prepared to do that.

If they get off scott-free, or with just a token slap on the wrist, well, I'll be getting a lot of infuriated comments about the miscarriage of justice, and the NCAA's credibility as a consistent, potent enforcer of its own regulations -- rightly or wrongly -- will be at an all-time low. That's not a comment on anyone's innocence or guilt; behind closed doors, the actual facts may not warrant a significant punishment. But when a case is allowed to sprawl and flourish for this long as the exemplar of open, arrogant defiance in the eyes of fans and media, anything less than a sledgehammer is inevitably going to be greeted like the O.J. verdict. Even if it wins in front of the NCAA, I don't think there's any way SC can come on top of the PR battle.

OVERALL RECORD: Carroll 6-6; Kiffin 7-6.
CONFERENCE: Carroll 5-3 Pac-10, 5th Place; Kiffin 4-4 SEC-East, 2nd Place.
NON-CONFERENCE: Carroll 1-2; Kiffin 3-1.
BOWL GAME: Carroll - L 10-6 Utah, Las Vegas Bowl; Kiffin - L 37-14 Virginia
Tech, Chick-Fil-A Bowl.
VS. CONFERENCE CHAMP: Carroll - L 24-22 Oregon at Eugene (Oregon #2 in 2001
Final AP/BCS Poll); Kiffin - L 12-10 Alabama at Tuscaloosa (Alabama #1 in 2009
Final AP/BCS Poll).
VS. ARCHRIVAL: Carroll - W 27-0 UCLA; Kiffin - W 30-24 (OT) at Kentucky.
VS. RICK NEUHEISEL: Carroll - L 27-24 at Washington; Kiffin - L 19-15 UCLA.
FINAL 6 GAMES OF SEASON (not including bowl): Carroll - 5-1 (loss at Notre
Dame); Kiffin - 4-2 (losses at Alabama & Mississippi).

View full size photo »

Ed. Note - Joey and I collaborated this piece together...P

Norm Chow is not going to be the USC offensive coordinator next season. Relax, deal with it, and let’s move on. It’s time to start focusing on rounding out the rest of the staff instead of constantly thinking about what could have been with Chow calling the plays.

Still, in all honestly, it would have been nice to be able to poke a finger in the eye of some UCLA fans by stealing Chow, but in the grand scheme of things, it is not the end of the world for this program.

In retrospect, it is perfectly understandable as to why everyone was clamoring for Chow. His return to USC would have given Kiffin and the Trojans instant credibility in the living rooms of five-star recruits and in press rooms nationwide. It would have smoothed over some of the perception issues and calmed the worries of the many of us who remain tentatively nervous about this latest hire. But the deal never took place, and, that doesn’t necessarily mean the program is in bad shape. In fact, it could even be better in the long term.

There is no question that Chow is an icon in college football. He knows how to use personnel and he is a tremendous developer of quarterbacks. But you can say that his play calling has had some ups and downs. There are many who will continue to pine for the old days, but really, I think that people treat Chow's past history at USC like wine (it gets better with age).

In the meanwhile, it’s essential for us to take a step back and reflect. Do your accomplishments six years ago guarantee success now? When it’s all said and done, perception isn't reality, especially when in regards to Chow.

We have to be realistic. As great as it sounded to have the "band back together," it is a lot simpler that Chow did not return as well. That was a disaster waiting to happen. Chow has a huge ego. I am sure that he was not pleased to hear that Kiffin wanted to call the plays (although, it is rumored that Neuheisel pulled play calling duty from Chow at one point in the season). We all need to come to terms with the fact that Chow's better days are likely behind him. He has procured a lot of mileage on his good name, but his NFL stint with the Titans was a failure and the jury is still out on his current endeavor across town (it isn’t looking too promising). That doesn't diminish his accomplishments at all, but in recent years, he has not been overly impressive. His name creates more buzz and hype than his recent accomplishments. In Chow’s two seasons in Westwood, the Bruins have ranked over 80 nationally in total offense. Not exactly a group that has been garnering a wealth of offensive awards.

But nevertheless, Chow’s fingerprints are all over the program, even if he never calls another play for the Trojans.

Kiffin tutored under Chow after all. He was taught by the guru. Didn’t he learn something?

Of course he did. He does have his fair share of career accomplishments.

When Chow bolted for the NFL in 2005, how were John David Booty and Mark Sanchez both able to make it to the NFL? Isn't that the benchmark as to the success of a college quarterback? Sanchez was the fourth overall pick. Booty while going in the later rounds at least got a shot – most don’t. Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian developed both of those guys with Chow having very little if any input in either player’s development.

Go back and look at the 2006 BCS Title game against Texas. That night, ‘SC put up 38 point on the best defense in the country. That game was lost by a decimated defense and few bad calls - not the offense. The offense, short of two plays, had that game won. Lane Kiffin called that game; he was the offensive coordinator and the play caller. We can argue all we want about not having Bush in the game on 4th and 2, but ‘SC had successfully run that play all night so there was little to no reason for them to change anything dramatically. Both Kiffin and Chow had the disposal of Reggie Bush – arguably the most explosive player in college football up to that point. Bush bailed out Chow as much as he bailed out Kiffin.

As much as the next guy, Chow goes as the talent goes. The better it is the better he is. Chow doesn't turn scrap into metal. He needs talent for his schemes to work like anybody else. What separates him from other coordinators is his ability to maximize the talent available. It’s what good coaches do, but he like anyone, has his limits.  At UCLA, with limited talent, we have yet to see the explosive Chow offense come to life. Sure, Neuheisel is a great recruiter, but he still has yet to live up to his name in reeling in talent. As a result, he and Chow have had their fair share of difficulties in instituting a prolific offense.

Kiffin isn’t perfect, but he brings a lot of positives. Aside from being a great recruiter he is an exceptional passing coordinator. Working with a fantastic talent, this should shine through.

But most importantly, Kiffin isn’t doing this by himself. The staff he put together even without Norm Chow is the definition of the dream team that UCLA was trying to replicate two years ago. Getting Chow would have been the cherry on top, but the staff is starting to look good nonetheless.

Despite the constant bellyaching from the mainstream press and the folks from across town, ‘SC will likely be better than most want to believe. Provided Kiffin can compete for the Pac-10 title off the bat, I think he will squelch the complaints that we are hearing today.

• Coach X replaces Pete Carroll after he won his third national title and finished 13-0. And 17 starters return in 2010!
• Coach X replaces Pete Carroll after USC has its worst season since 2001 and is about to get hit with NCAA sanctions. And the returning personnel is questionable.

So pretty much every key victory in the Crimson Tide's undefeated run through the 2009 season was followed by an opposing fanbase crying foul and insisting that their team really deserved to win. Sadly though, victories are still awarded to the team with the most points on the scoreboard when time expires.

But we here at Roll Bama Roll are nothing if not caring. We would like to not only address this horrible state of affairs but also offer a resolution to the ongoing debate about the lack of a playoff to determine the true champion. Thus we present the 2009 Moral Victory National Championship playoff in order to determine the coveted mantle of "The People's Champion."

As you are aware, the Alabama Crimson Tide won the BCS National Championship with a victory in Pasadena, California last week. While no team was able to beat the Crimson Tide on the football field this season, no less than four teams insist they should have won their particular game. Through this week we'll let these teams and their claims to victory go head to head and let you decide which one has the best moral victory of the season.

Alabama defeated Texas 37-21 to win the BCS Championship. Congrats to the Crimson Tide.

A group called Playoff PAC is running this ad in an attempt to change the current BCS system. The ad will air in Dallas, Salt Lake City and Boise, Idaho before Thursday’s Texas vs. Alabama game.

You Had a Great Season [playoffpac.com]
Playoff PAC To Air College Football Playoff Ad [huffingtonpost]

Consider this: a down year for Notre Dame and Michigan is finishing 3-9. A down year for Pete Carroll's USC is finishing 9-4 and comfortably in the Top 25. If finishing 9-4 and remaining in the Top 25 is a down year for USC, I'll take it!

One man's trash is another man's treasure. To translate that, one bad season for USC is another team's dream season. This year the Temple Owls had their best season in 30 years. Guess what their record was? 9-4. Illinois had their miracle season in 2007 when they made it to the Rose Bowl (and was blown out by USC 49-17). Their record was also 9-4. And there are plenty of other teams, too many to count, who wish they finished 9-4.

Consider this: a down year for Notre Dame and Michigan is finishing 3-9. A down year for Pete Carroll's USC is finishing 9-4 and comfortably in the Top 25. If finishing 9-4 and remaining in the Top 25 is a down year for USC, I'll take it!

One man's trash is another man's treasure. To translate that, one bad season for USC is another team's dream season. This year the Temple Owls had their best season in 30 years. Guess what their record was? 9-4. Illinois had their miracle season in 2007 when they made it to the Rose Bowl (and was blown out by USC 49-17). Their record was also 9-4. And there are plenty of other teams, too many to count, who wish they finished 9-4.

A focused Trojan effort should lead the Trojans to a victory over a Boston College team that plays a conservative pro-style offense, fitting right into what USC defends against the best. The Trojans also possess offensive speed, even without RB Joe McKnight and Tight End Anthony McCoy that Boston College has yet to see this year.

However, getting the Trojans to play focused and passionate in a normal bowl game will be a tall order for Coach Carroll.

Keys to the Game:

Avoid Complacency: Since 2002, the Trojans have been playing in BCS bowls so it is a foreign concept for the Trojan players to be participating in a lower tier bowl to finish the season. Typically, teams in this situation do not play with the focus and passion that is required to beat an opponent who is looking forward to knocking off a top tier program. With four losses including two where they were soundly beaten, the Trojans cannot think for a second that a pedestrian effort will win this game. Couple that with the loss of four big contributors due to academics or NCAA investigation (McCoy, Spicer, Smith and McKnight), Troy has no room for error.

On the flip side, a focused effort should result in a victory to help wash away some of the disappointment of the season.

Stuff RB Montel Harris early: Boston College Running Back Montel Harris has rushed for 1,355 yards this season and accounts for about 70% of BC’s offense when they win. He is a strong straight ahead runner who also possesses good break away speed. When Harris is running well, especially early, it allows BC to play it safe in the passing game and avoid turnovers. It will be interesting to see how SC fares against Harris. BC runs a very simple offense with uncomplicated blocking schemes which should play right into the Trojans hands. Against similar schemes this year, the Trojans were successful stopping the run but those teams didn’t possess a back like Harris.

It will be bad news for the Trojans If Harris runs the ball around 30 times and rushes for over 150 yards. . .

Confuse the BC Quarterback: 25 year-old freshman Quarterback Dave Shiniskie has had a solid year for BC throwing for 1,831 yards with 14 touchdown passes in a run happy offense. However, he has also thrown 13 interceptions and played awful against teams that mixed things up defensively and possessed team speed like the Trojans. Against Virginia Tech and North Carolina, both games that BC fell behind early and had to throw, Shiniskie was 13 for 31 with 6 interceptions and only 1 td pass. He ended up being pulled in the second half of both games. He does not do a good job of throwing the ball away against pressure and will literally throw it up for grabs at times. The BC coaches have been working with him on just taking the sack or throwing it out of bounds but the Trojans should still get opportunities at multiple interceptions if they contain the running game.

*Offensive keys to the game, players to watch and a little inside the locker room info after the break

The Wall Street Journal says of the 1,496 bowl game starters, only 8.4% of them were top-100 recruits.

Mark Ingram. Colt McCoy. Not top-100's.

Oregon, Cincinnati, TCU and Boise State — not a top-100 recruit in their starting lineup for their respective BCS games.

Who has the most top-100's in their starting lineup with thirteen?

USC.

Top Recruiting Isn't a Prerequisite for a BCS Berth [WSJ via the Wiz]